I think we all know the script. The Red Sox have owned the Angels historically in post-season action. The way both teams are constructed this year begs a much closer look, though. I still think the Red Sox will come out on top. But, this is not '04, '07 or even '08. Both teams have gotten to this point in vastly different ways.
I think we need to spend a lot of well chosen words in talking about the Angels. They are a completely different team than what we are used to. Once an aggressive team that was built on speed and a dominant back end bullpen, the Angels as a whole have come full circle this year. Seemingly, the late offseason addition of Bobby Abreu and his patient approach to hitting has rubbed off on many teammates. Chone Figgins has turned into a premier leadoff guy with close to a .400 OBP with over 40 steals. Abreu also checked in with a .390 OBP setting up the big guys of Tori Hunter, Vlad Guerrero, Kendry Morales (34 homers, 108 RBI's) and Juan Rivera (88 ribbies). This is a formidable offense with tough outs top to bottom including Red Sox killer Mike Napoli (20 bombs), the 2nd base combo of Kendrick/Izturis and SS Erick Aybar (hitting .312). There are no spots to relax and with this improved patience, decent power and several guys who can run, the Red Sox pitching staff will have their work cut out for them.
The Angels starting rotation consists of John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders. All have been tough on the Red Sox at times, especially Kazmir when he was at Tampa Bay. Interestingly, the Sox have hit Lackey well historically (including the post-season), but were almost no hit by him earlier this year. Same with Saunders who occasionally looks like a world beater and has pitched very well down the stretch. Kazmir can be trick or treat, but has pitched very well overall since being acquired by Los Angeles in late August. Weaver is steady and has been the most consistent starter all year. The bullpen, always a huge strength of the Angels with the likes of K-Rod, Scot Shields, and Justin Speier has been the team's Achilles heel. Closer Brian Fuentes has been shaky and other than veteran soft tosser Darren Oliver, the majority of the bullpen including set-up righties Kevin Jepsen and Jason Bulger are unproven in the post-season.
Getting to the Red Sox, they come into the post-season reasonably healthy and with some new weapons. Assuming the last week bumps and bruises of Drew, Lowell and Gonzalez are no factor, they are poised to make a strong run towards their 3rd title in 6 years. The absolute key to any Sox run starts and finishes with Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. If they are right, no team boasts a one/two punch of power pitching from both sides of the bump. Both have great post-season track records and we all have seen that power guys dominate in October. This is a huge advantage to the Sox in a 5 game series. The Angels simply do not have an ace with these type credentials. The Sox also boast plenty of power arms in the bullpen supporting Jonathan Papelbon. Daniel Bard and Billy Wagner will be asked to get many of the big outs in the 7th and 8th innings. Okajima should be rested and ready to help along with Ramon Ramirez. Again, this is a huge advantage over the Halos.
Again, assuming good health, Alex Gonzalez has transformed the Red Sox into an above average defensive team. One could argue that other than left field and catcher, they are very solid making the plays with better than league average range. We've all seen several track meets this year with all the base stealing with Varitek and even Martinez behind the plate. The Angels have the personnel to make this happen. However, 2 of the biggest culprits on the hill (Wakefield and Brad Penny) won't be pitching which should help some. The other factor is that it appears that Jason Varitek will be a bit part this series. Martinez is certainly not a great catcher, but at this stage in his career a better alternative than the captain. Much of this will be moot if Lester and Beckett do their thing and pitch the way they are capable. Clay Buchholz, despite 2 shaky starts, has great stuff and Dice-K should be able to give them 5-6 serviceable innings as their 4th starter.
Rounding out the Red Sox roster should be interesting. They may only carry 10 pitchers which would likely leave Paul Byrd and Manny Delcarmen out. They may opt for a 3rd catcher (Kottaras), an extra infielder (if they can find a healthy one) or speedy outfielder (Joey Gathright) taking the Dave Roberts role. The last minute health of Jed Lowrie, Nick Green and Rocco Baldelli will likely make any predictions here difficult. Lowrie hit a homer the other day batting lefty, but was grimacing noticably after the swing. Green has a herniated disk in his back, we all know how those can be and Baldelli seemingly just can't stay healthy. This could open roster spots for the likes of Gathright, Chris Woodward, Brian Anderson and/or Josh Reddick.
I'm going with Boston winning the series in 4 games. Lester and Beckett do their thing in California. The Angels will knock Buchholz around in game 3 to force a game 4. Game 4, Dice K throws his usual root canal game of 120 pitches in 5 innings, they use 6 relievers and win 6-5 with Pap getting the save. This is how I see it.
Monday, October 5, 2009
Friday, October 2, 2009
Don't Everyone Panic Just Yet:
I know the Red Sox have been playing lousy lately. In listening to some of the radio shows, some people are starting to panic. I'll admit, it was nice seeing the Sox play a clean game last night using their regular lineup and giving us a sneak preview on how they intend on using the bullpen. But, even if they had kept their losing streak intact over the weekend against lame duck manager Eric Wedge and the Indians, I really don't think it would have mattered much. They are in good shape going into the post season and despite national pundits forecasting their swift exit, I really think the Angels are the team to be worried right now. More on that in a future blog post.
The Red Sox have been in a state of constant adjustment these last few weeks. Adjustment #1 has been the gradual understanding that Jason Varitek will be a bit player in these playoffs. After acquiring Victor Martinez at the deadline, I really think Theo, Tito and many Sox fans thought that taking maybe 15-20% of Varitek's workload away would spark up his bat and keep him fresh for the playoffs. This has proven to be a completely false statement. Varitek's bat has gotten worse (hard to imagine it getting worse than it already was) and his defense seems to have dropped off. Most opponents these last several weeks have turned their baserunners into track stars and have given even the slow footed the green light to run. Varitek by far has given up the most stolen bases in the league this year. And, yes, Red Sox pitchers are instructed not to mess with slide steps too much, but Varitek's average time getting the ball to second of 2.2 seconds gives even a slide step pitcher no chance. His arm is shot and his reaction times are dulled. This has been hard to watch, his decline has been ongoing the last 18 months, but it has accelerated almost at the level of my previous employer's downfall!
Another reason for their lackluster play lately is pretty obvious as well. The injuries to Lester and Beckett and the refusal of the Sox to overuse their key bullpen guys have put some truly putrid options out there. Theo has been running himself ragged looking for mop-up guys in the organization (Kyle Snyder would look good now). Watching Hunter Jones, Dustin Richardson and Fernando Cabrerra put gasoline on most every fire has not exactly been inspiring to watch. Theo has had to play games with the 40 man roster including DL'ing Tazawa and Aaron Bates to get some guys up with some kind of a pulse. They even had to designate my boy Chris Carter for assignment earlier this week to get Cabrerra here. Paul Byrd will be able to take the the mop-up role going forward, but these last several weeks have been brutal. A short outing by Lester, Beckett missing a start, Wakefield crippled out there, etc. has put the Sox in unwinnable situations.
All this being said, I really like the starting pitching going into the playoffs. Lester's injury might have been a blessing. He got some rest and also only threw 80 plus pitches last night. He should be refreshed. Beckett missing a start can only help him. He had pitched a bit better his last few times out after a tough 6 week stretch. Buchholz has been very solid and will be starting game 3 at Fenway. Dice K really has given them 4 pretty solid starts since coming back from the fat farm. They have made a conscious effort to not overuse Papelbon, Wagner, Bard and Okajima these last few weeks. How they got to Papelbon last night will likely be the blueprint for the playoffs. Use Bard and Wagner to get the tough 7th and 8th inning outs. Okie, Ramon Ramirez and Saito are no slouches also. This shapes up as a team strength as long as they leave Manny Delcarmen back in Hyde Park or in the bullpen.
The Red Sox have been in a state of constant adjustment these last few weeks. Adjustment #1 has been the gradual understanding that Jason Varitek will be a bit player in these playoffs. After acquiring Victor Martinez at the deadline, I really think Theo, Tito and many Sox fans thought that taking maybe 15-20% of Varitek's workload away would spark up his bat and keep him fresh for the playoffs. This has proven to be a completely false statement. Varitek's bat has gotten worse (hard to imagine it getting worse than it already was) and his defense seems to have dropped off. Most opponents these last several weeks have turned their baserunners into track stars and have given even the slow footed the green light to run. Varitek by far has given up the most stolen bases in the league this year. And, yes, Red Sox pitchers are instructed not to mess with slide steps too much, but Varitek's average time getting the ball to second of 2.2 seconds gives even a slide step pitcher no chance. His arm is shot and his reaction times are dulled. This has been hard to watch, his decline has been ongoing the last 18 months, but it has accelerated almost at the level of my previous employer's downfall!
Another reason for their lackluster play lately is pretty obvious as well. The injuries to Lester and Beckett and the refusal of the Sox to overuse their key bullpen guys have put some truly putrid options out there. Theo has been running himself ragged looking for mop-up guys in the organization (Kyle Snyder would look good now). Watching Hunter Jones, Dustin Richardson and Fernando Cabrerra put gasoline on most every fire has not exactly been inspiring to watch. Theo has had to play games with the 40 man roster including DL'ing Tazawa and Aaron Bates to get some guys up with some kind of a pulse. They even had to designate my boy Chris Carter for assignment earlier this week to get Cabrerra here. Paul Byrd will be able to take the the mop-up role going forward, but these last several weeks have been brutal. A short outing by Lester, Beckett missing a start, Wakefield crippled out there, etc. has put the Sox in unwinnable situations.
All this being said, I really like the starting pitching going into the playoffs. Lester's injury might have been a blessing. He got some rest and also only threw 80 plus pitches last night. He should be refreshed. Beckett missing a start can only help him. He had pitched a bit better his last few times out after a tough 6 week stretch. Buchholz has been very solid and will be starting game 3 at Fenway. Dice K really has given them 4 pretty solid starts since coming back from the fat farm. They have made a conscious effort to not overuse Papelbon, Wagner, Bard and Okajima these last few weeks. How they got to Papelbon last night will likely be the blueprint for the playoffs. Use Bard and Wagner to get the tough 7th and 8th inning outs. Okie, Ramon Ramirez and Saito are no slouches also. This shapes up as a team strength as long as they leave Manny Delcarmen back in Hyde Park or in the bullpen.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Red Sox First Half Report Card
The Red Sox have gone into the All-Star Break with a fine 54-34 record, second best record in baseball after the Dodgers. It's been a pretty uneventful first half with really no one in the starting lineup having a career year but with everyone contributing enough to ward off long losing streaks. The team has weathered the injuries of Jed Lowrie and Mike Lowell and has put to rest for the time being that David Ortiz is washed up. Once again, the American League is proving to be the best division in baseball. The Yanks have had a decent first half and Tampa Bay is coming along. The Central has proven to be a land of mediocrity once again and the West has the surprising Rangers and Mariners playing pretty well. If I was a betting man, I see the Sox winning the East with the Yanks taking the wild card. Detroit and Anaheim should grab the other two divisional titles.
Below, I'll individually assign letter grades to our beloved ball club. I try to keep all things in perspective while doing so including salary and overall value to the team and not just looking at the numbers.
Jason Varitek B+ Doing just fine this year. He definitely has simplified his swing and approach, especially from the left side. On pace for 20 plus homers and is taking his walks. He's handled the pitching staff very well. Perhaps this grade should be higher. They'd be screwed if he didn't come back.
George Kottaras B It's hard to put up offensive numbers when you only play every 5th day. He's done a superb job catching Wakefield. Dougie who? Kevin who? Nice having a young catcher in the system. And, with more playing time, I think you'll see more power. No one put on a better show in BP than George when I was in Baltimore. I'd really like the Sox to try and get him a few extra starts to keep him sharp and give Varitek more breathers as he tends to wear down each season.
Kevin Youkilis A- Only a recent swoon at the plate keeps him from a straight A. I love the guy, love what he stands for. Grinds out every at bat, has developed excellent power, plays first base at an elite level and when asked to play third, is above average there. He might be the best baserunner in the starting 9 as well. Lowell's stint on the DL and Youk's move to third recently may have contributed to the drop in numbers. Francona should look to get Youk a bit of rest here and there to keep him fresh.
Dustin Pedroia B+ His numbers are down somewhat from last year's MVP year. But, he's been positively scorching lately and the extra base hits are starting to pile up. With Youkilis, he's an elite defender and the heart and soul of the team. And, he gives every little leaguer a reason to believe.
Mike Lowell B Before being disabled, he was putting up some solid numbers and fielding quite well. If I have any complaints about Epstein and Francona, it was their decision to play him in so many games early on. Hopefully they'll give him a day off a week once he returns. He's vital to the lineup in that his replacements have done well, but do not have Lowell's power. He may be the slowest runner in the American League these days.
Nick Green B+ Been a complete godsend. Like Alex Cora, a career backup. With Lowrie down, he developed more confidence and has more or less played fulltime the last few months. Has played very steady at shortstop and got many big hits for the Sox including a few game winners. His bat has gone in the tank the last few weeks and I think this is an indication of his career backup status. With Lowrie coming back, he'll return to a lesser role and hopefully his bat will resurrect. He gives the Sox nice flexibility going forward.
Jason Bay B- I know he was a starter in the All Star game and is leading the league in RBI's. But, he's also hitting behind some serious OBP guys and probably also leads the league in opportunities. He's been good, but his average has plummeted and the strikeouts are starting to pile up. Don't get me wrong, I like Bay and hope that they can sign him long term. He's a decent outfielder and a guy who always hustles. But, he's a sucker for righthanded sliders in the dirt.
Jacoby Ellsbury B A bit of a puzzle, not from me, but from management. I give him a lot of credit for keeping his approach steady when they took him out of the leadoff spot. He's played the hell out of CF, has been at or near .300 the whole season and is on pace for over 60 SB. He doesn't yet have the patience at the plate to have the OBP that the Sox like up top. But, I almost think he's better off right now being aggressive, bunting and giving them some production from the bottom of the order.
JD Drew B We all have to come to grips and accept him for what he is. He can be infuriating to watch at times. He takes a ton of pitches and a lot of third strikes. But, when you look at the important numbers, he's right there. He's a good baserunner, a very good right fielder and seems to elevate his game at times when they need it. He's been on the field for the most part, which was always the biggest knock on JD. He's keeping the leadoff spot warm right now for Ellsbury, possibly for the rest of the year. No one has a sweeter swing than JD. I just wish he'd use it a bit more.
David Ortiz C- Not going to delve too far into his first 2 months. He's picked it up considerably the last 6 weeks. I really think they were within a few weeks of really pulling the plug on him. And, don't be fooled by what you see now. Yes, he's doing much better and that is certainly a welcome sight. But, his days of domination are over, he still does not hit good pitching all that well and he has a ton of holes in his swing. But, he's starting to make pitchers pay for their mistakes which is something he wasn't doing. He'll probably end up with 30 HR and 100 RBI when all is said and done. Papi's probably teeing off on about the 16th hole of his career, let's hope he can finish strong.
Julio Lugo D I know his average is pretty good, but for whatever reason (injury, age), he simply cannot play anymore. He has no power, has lost much of his speed and cannot get to any balls in the field. He will be designated for assignment sooner than later.
Rocco Baldelli B Very talented guy. They have really babied him in the first half, (85 AB's). Sometimes he looks a little funny out in the field, especially when tracking balls and throwing the ball in. Don't know if this is connected to the mitochondria fatigue syndrome he's got. I'd really like to know if they are being overcautious or that he's more hampered by this thing than we know. His obvious talent level aside, it's hard to carry a guy like this on the bench that you can't count on. I look for Rocco to get more opportunities the second half.
Mark Kotsay B- Riddled by injuries. He's a great guy to have on the team, very versatile and does everything pretty well except hit for power. I'm amazed how well he plays at first considering he's a career outfielder.
Jeff Bailey, Jon Van Every, Aaron Bates et, all: Incomplete, not enough opportunities.
Pitching Staff:
Josh Beckett B+ Inconsistent as hell the first 6 weeks, absolutely dominant since. It's fun watching a power pitcher like Beckett carve up teams in Maddux like fashion. No one I'd rather have out there in a big game.
Jon Lester B- Similar season to Beckett except he was a little more erratic for a little longer. Again, like Beckett, been dominant lately. It was hard seeing him struggle, seemed like velocity and movement were there. But, when he's on, he is a pleasure to watch. With all the innings he pitched last year, the Sox will be smart in keeping an eye on his innings going forward.
Tim Wakfield A- I know his ERA is north of 4.00. I don't care. He saved the Sox when Beckett and Lester were struggling. And, take away a few bad outings where his ERA got fluffed up, he's been pretty amazing. I have not always been a Wakefield guy, but I've been converted. He seriously helps the team each year and is probably one of the most underappreciated guys we've had around here.
Brad Penny C+ Another high ERA, but he's done about what they thought he would. His stamina hasn't been great and teams 3rd time through the order have done well against him. But, for what they are paying him, he's come through. His velocity has crept up, but he lacks the offspeed stuff to keep batters off the heater for long. He could very well be dealt if they decide to take the kid gloves off of Clay Buchholz.
Dice K F Something clearly not right there. WBC killed his preparation for the season. Has shown zero command and reduced velocity. I just have a bit of a bad feeling about him. Has he used up too many of his bullets before coming over here? It's obvious he lacks the conditioning necessary to pitch every 5 days (I don't know about you, but he looks chubby to me). I hope they can get him straightened out. They have a big financial committment to him. He has been pitching professionally since age 18. I just wonder if he's got a 37 year old arm.
John Smoltz INC Has done OK since coming up. Had one shaky inning each start which has contributed to high pitch counts. They are treating him with kid gloves. I still think there will be more there than we've seen so far. I bet he wins 6 or 7 games down the stretch.
Jonathan Papelbon B+ Getting the job done per usual. But, isn't quite as dominant as he's been. Velocity looks fine, but he really hasn't trusted his secondary pitches so far. Still, an elite closer in every regard.
Hideki Okajima B+ Doing a lot of the dirty work this year. Doesn't get the publicity he deserves. He's had a few meltdowns this year, but all in all has been very consistent and as the only lefty in the pen, has been counted on heavily. He's been an absolute find for the Sox.
Ramon Ramirez B+ Started very quickly, but has slumped a bit lately. I think teams have figured him out a bit, he's got great stuff, but the velocity difference on his pitches needs to be a bit greater. If a guy is looking fastball at 94 and gets the 90 changeup, this is not enough to fool him. Overall, bullpen guys are hard to find and he's been very very good.
Manny Delcarmen B- Worldbeater one day, whipping boy the next. Great stuff, has done fairly well overall, but just when you think he's going to take things to a whole new level, he throws a stinker out there.
Justin Masterson C+ The overall numbers don't look good. He's had a few real bad outings which have driven the ERA way up. Still, a supremely talented guy. As a reliever, I think he's amped up to throw harder and I think this takes away from his strength, namely his sinker. It's almost to the point that he sees 96 on the gun and he's a fastball pitcher, but he's really not. He has not developed a third pitch yet, either. If he's not getting his slider over, he's in trouble. And, lefties get a good look at his delivery. A very durable and versatile pitcher who has started and relieved. Forget the heater, Justin, start 2 seaming and sinking. Masterson and Delcarmen could be dangled for an impact bat this offseason (especially if Bay walks).
Takashi Saito B- Hard to really know. His stuff looks good, not great. Most of the time he looks good, not great. They have babied him all the way through. He's great insurance for Papelbon, but at this point has not pitched very many impact innings for the Red Sox. I wonder if some contender will come calling for him to provide depth at the closer position. Or, maybe the Sox have played it casual with him so he'll have something left later.
Daniel Bard A- Man, is it fun watching this guy pitch. I love the easy delivery and he seems pretty relaxed out there. Nasty slider. Will be interesting if he develops a split or change to go with the heater and hook. A big part of the back end of the Sox bullpen for years to come.
Javier Lopez, Michael Bowden and Hunter Jones INC I'm being nice to Javy here, he was putrid before they shipped him to Pawtucket.
Terry Francona A- Best manager the Sox have ever had. He continues to push the right buttons and get maximum value out of his players. Only complaint is his overuse of Mike Lowell. And, here's hoping he gets 'Tek more breathers as well.
Below, I'll individually assign letter grades to our beloved ball club. I try to keep all things in perspective while doing so including salary and overall value to the team and not just looking at the numbers.
Jason Varitek B+ Doing just fine this year. He definitely has simplified his swing and approach, especially from the left side. On pace for 20 plus homers and is taking his walks. He's handled the pitching staff very well. Perhaps this grade should be higher. They'd be screwed if he didn't come back.
George Kottaras B It's hard to put up offensive numbers when you only play every 5th day. He's done a superb job catching Wakefield. Dougie who? Kevin who? Nice having a young catcher in the system. And, with more playing time, I think you'll see more power. No one put on a better show in BP than George when I was in Baltimore. I'd really like the Sox to try and get him a few extra starts to keep him sharp and give Varitek more breathers as he tends to wear down each season.
Kevin Youkilis A- Only a recent swoon at the plate keeps him from a straight A. I love the guy, love what he stands for. Grinds out every at bat, has developed excellent power, plays first base at an elite level and when asked to play third, is above average there. He might be the best baserunner in the starting 9 as well. Lowell's stint on the DL and Youk's move to third recently may have contributed to the drop in numbers. Francona should look to get Youk a bit of rest here and there to keep him fresh.
Dustin Pedroia B+ His numbers are down somewhat from last year's MVP year. But, he's been positively scorching lately and the extra base hits are starting to pile up. With Youkilis, he's an elite defender and the heart and soul of the team. And, he gives every little leaguer a reason to believe.
Mike Lowell B Before being disabled, he was putting up some solid numbers and fielding quite well. If I have any complaints about Epstein and Francona, it was their decision to play him in so many games early on. Hopefully they'll give him a day off a week once he returns. He's vital to the lineup in that his replacements have done well, but do not have Lowell's power. He may be the slowest runner in the American League these days.
Nick Green B+ Been a complete godsend. Like Alex Cora, a career backup. With Lowrie down, he developed more confidence and has more or less played fulltime the last few months. Has played very steady at shortstop and got many big hits for the Sox including a few game winners. His bat has gone in the tank the last few weeks and I think this is an indication of his career backup status. With Lowrie coming back, he'll return to a lesser role and hopefully his bat will resurrect. He gives the Sox nice flexibility going forward.
Jason Bay B- I know he was a starter in the All Star game and is leading the league in RBI's. But, he's also hitting behind some serious OBP guys and probably also leads the league in opportunities. He's been good, but his average has plummeted and the strikeouts are starting to pile up. Don't get me wrong, I like Bay and hope that they can sign him long term. He's a decent outfielder and a guy who always hustles. But, he's a sucker for righthanded sliders in the dirt.
Jacoby Ellsbury B A bit of a puzzle, not from me, but from management. I give him a lot of credit for keeping his approach steady when they took him out of the leadoff spot. He's played the hell out of CF, has been at or near .300 the whole season and is on pace for over 60 SB. He doesn't yet have the patience at the plate to have the OBP that the Sox like up top. But, I almost think he's better off right now being aggressive, bunting and giving them some production from the bottom of the order.
JD Drew B We all have to come to grips and accept him for what he is. He can be infuriating to watch at times. He takes a ton of pitches and a lot of third strikes. But, when you look at the important numbers, he's right there. He's a good baserunner, a very good right fielder and seems to elevate his game at times when they need it. He's been on the field for the most part, which was always the biggest knock on JD. He's keeping the leadoff spot warm right now for Ellsbury, possibly for the rest of the year. No one has a sweeter swing than JD. I just wish he'd use it a bit more.
David Ortiz C- Not going to delve too far into his first 2 months. He's picked it up considerably the last 6 weeks. I really think they were within a few weeks of really pulling the plug on him. And, don't be fooled by what you see now. Yes, he's doing much better and that is certainly a welcome sight. But, his days of domination are over, he still does not hit good pitching all that well and he has a ton of holes in his swing. But, he's starting to make pitchers pay for their mistakes which is something he wasn't doing. He'll probably end up with 30 HR and 100 RBI when all is said and done. Papi's probably teeing off on about the 16th hole of his career, let's hope he can finish strong.
Julio Lugo D I know his average is pretty good, but for whatever reason (injury, age), he simply cannot play anymore. He has no power, has lost much of his speed and cannot get to any balls in the field. He will be designated for assignment sooner than later.
Rocco Baldelli B Very talented guy. They have really babied him in the first half, (85 AB's). Sometimes he looks a little funny out in the field, especially when tracking balls and throwing the ball in. Don't know if this is connected to the mitochondria fatigue syndrome he's got. I'd really like to know if they are being overcautious or that he's more hampered by this thing than we know. His obvious talent level aside, it's hard to carry a guy like this on the bench that you can't count on. I look for Rocco to get more opportunities the second half.
Mark Kotsay B- Riddled by injuries. He's a great guy to have on the team, very versatile and does everything pretty well except hit for power. I'm amazed how well he plays at first considering he's a career outfielder.
Jeff Bailey, Jon Van Every, Aaron Bates et, all: Incomplete, not enough opportunities.
Pitching Staff:
Josh Beckett B+ Inconsistent as hell the first 6 weeks, absolutely dominant since. It's fun watching a power pitcher like Beckett carve up teams in Maddux like fashion. No one I'd rather have out there in a big game.
Jon Lester B- Similar season to Beckett except he was a little more erratic for a little longer. Again, like Beckett, been dominant lately. It was hard seeing him struggle, seemed like velocity and movement were there. But, when he's on, he is a pleasure to watch. With all the innings he pitched last year, the Sox will be smart in keeping an eye on his innings going forward.
Tim Wakfield A- I know his ERA is north of 4.00. I don't care. He saved the Sox when Beckett and Lester were struggling. And, take away a few bad outings where his ERA got fluffed up, he's been pretty amazing. I have not always been a Wakefield guy, but I've been converted. He seriously helps the team each year and is probably one of the most underappreciated guys we've had around here.
Brad Penny C+ Another high ERA, but he's done about what they thought he would. His stamina hasn't been great and teams 3rd time through the order have done well against him. But, for what they are paying him, he's come through. His velocity has crept up, but he lacks the offspeed stuff to keep batters off the heater for long. He could very well be dealt if they decide to take the kid gloves off of Clay Buchholz.
Dice K F Something clearly not right there. WBC killed his preparation for the season. Has shown zero command and reduced velocity. I just have a bit of a bad feeling about him. Has he used up too many of his bullets before coming over here? It's obvious he lacks the conditioning necessary to pitch every 5 days (I don't know about you, but he looks chubby to me). I hope they can get him straightened out. They have a big financial committment to him. He has been pitching professionally since age 18. I just wonder if he's got a 37 year old arm.
John Smoltz INC Has done OK since coming up. Had one shaky inning each start which has contributed to high pitch counts. They are treating him with kid gloves. I still think there will be more there than we've seen so far. I bet he wins 6 or 7 games down the stretch.
Jonathan Papelbon B+ Getting the job done per usual. But, isn't quite as dominant as he's been. Velocity looks fine, but he really hasn't trusted his secondary pitches so far. Still, an elite closer in every regard.
Hideki Okajima B+ Doing a lot of the dirty work this year. Doesn't get the publicity he deserves. He's had a few meltdowns this year, but all in all has been very consistent and as the only lefty in the pen, has been counted on heavily. He's been an absolute find for the Sox.
Ramon Ramirez B+ Started very quickly, but has slumped a bit lately. I think teams have figured him out a bit, he's got great stuff, but the velocity difference on his pitches needs to be a bit greater. If a guy is looking fastball at 94 and gets the 90 changeup, this is not enough to fool him. Overall, bullpen guys are hard to find and he's been very very good.
Manny Delcarmen B- Worldbeater one day, whipping boy the next. Great stuff, has done fairly well overall, but just when you think he's going to take things to a whole new level, he throws a stinker out there.
Justin Masterson C+ The overall numbers don't look good. He's had a few real bad outings which have driven the ERA way up. Still, a supremely talented guy. As a reliever, I think he's amped up to throw harder and I think this takes away from his strength, namely his sinker. It's almost to the point that he sees 96 on the gun and he's a fastball pitcher, but he's really not. He has not developed a third pitch yet, either. If he's not getting his slider over, he's in trouble. And, lefties get a good look at his delivery. A very durable and versatile pitcher who has started and relieved. Forget the heater, Justin, start 2 seaming and sinking. Masterson and Delcarmen could be dangled for an impact bat this offseason (especially if Bay walks).
Takashi Saito B- Hard to really know. His stuff looks good, not great. Most of the time he looks good, not great. They have babied him all the way through. He's great insurance for Papelbon, but at this point has not pitched very many impact innings for the Red Sox. I wonder if some contender will come calling for him to provide depth at the closer position. Or, maybe the Sox have played it casual with him so he'll have something left later.
Daniel Bard A- Man, is it fun watching this guy pitch. I love the easy delivery and he seems pretty relaxed out there. Nasty slider. Will be interesting if he develops a split or change to go with the heater and hook. A big part of the back end of the Sox bullpen for years to come.
Javier Lopez, Michael Bowden and Hunter Jones INC I'm being nice to Javy here, he was putrid before they shipped him to Pawtucket.
Terry Francona A- Best manager the Sox have ever had. He continues to push the right buttons and get maximum value out of his players. Only complaint is his overuse of Mike Lowell. And, here's hoping he gets 'Tek more breathers as well.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
A few odds and ends:
Brad Penny is surprising me. I really didn't expect that much out of him. I figured between him and John Smoltz, maybe you get lucky with one, maybe not. But, I have to say he's throwing the hell out of the ball. He looks motivated and seems to get a bit stronger each time out. And, he's pitching tough with runners in scoring position. The velocity is coming back, first few starts he was at 89-90, now the heater is 95 consistently. Certainly, I think there is something to the shoulder program that many of the Sox pitchers are on. Now, if they can only get Dice K on it.
Speaking of Dice K, this was the perfect way to handle the situation. Send him somewhere (preferably not too close to McDonalds) where he can get his arm, body and mind in shape. They do not need him right now. I figure we won't see him at all until August 1 or beyond. By then, we'll know where we are with Smoltz and Clay Buchholz is waiting in the wings if anyone falters. I really think it's put up or shut up time for Matsuzaka. There's a lot of mileage on that arm. He is a tremendously gifted pitcher, but I'm not sure he ever really bought into the American way and better yet, the Red Sox way. The Sox are lucky in that their strength and conditioning team and John Farrell are top notch. There is more to pitching than just throwing tons of pitches each day. Let Dice take all the time he needs to get everything going.
It has been impressive to see the Sox winning consistently with Youkilis, Bay, Pedroia and Varitek all struggling at the plate. David Ortiz has picked it up and Ellsbury and Green have contributed a ton. It's only a matter of days when Julio Lugo is handed his pink slip. Green has earned his spot and is making Sox fans forget about Alex Cora.
Finally, it appears that Manny Ramirez will take the next 10 days or so to get back in playing shape by appearing in Triple A games. I understand that there's no rule against this, but there should be. It's a disgrace that he gets to play minor league ball while suspended from Major League ball. I understand that Albuquerque will prosper from this at the box office, but it's still a farce. Manny should not be allowed on a pro field until his suspension is up, then it's up to him and the team on how they get the rust off.
Speaking of Dice K, this was the perfect way to handle the situation. Send him somewhere (preferably not too close to McDonalds) where he can get his arm, body and mind in shape. They do not need him right now. I figure we won't see him at all until August 1 or beyond. By then, we'll know where we are with Smoltz and Clay Buchholz is waiting in the wings if anyone falters. I really think it's put up or shut up time for Matsuzaka. There's a lot of mileage on that arm. He is a tremendously gifted pitcher, but I'm not sure he ever really bought into the American way and better yet, the Red Sox way. The Sox are lucky in that their strength and conditioning team and John Farrell are top notch. There is more to pitching than just throwing tons of pitches each day. Let Dice take all the time he needs to get everything going.
It has been impressive to see the Sox winning consistently with Youkilis, Bay, Pedroia and Varitek all struggling at the plate. David Ortiz has picked it up and Ellsbury and Green have contributed a ton. It's only a matter of days when Julio Lugo is handed his pink slip. Green has earned his spot and is making Sox fans forget about Alex Cora.
Finally, it appears that Manny Ramirez will take the next 10 days or so to get back in playing shape by appearing in Triple A games. I understand that there's no rule against this, but there should be. It's a disgrace that he gets to play minor league ball while suspended from Major League ball. I understand that Albuquerque will prosper from this at the box office, but it's still a farce. Manny should not be allowed on a pro field until his suspension is up, then it's up to him and the team on how they get the rust off.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Dice K
The Red Sox are being coy about their plans for the rotation going forward. John Smoltz has made 5 rehab starts and is stretched out reasonably enough so as to not be a huge burden on the Sox's bullpen. While it's possible they have Smoltz make one more rehab start at Pawtucket, sooner or later they are going to have to make a decision on the rotation and also the roster.
Lester and Beckett (other than yesterday) have been pitching well and it's probably too early to work in some sort of break for them. Wakefield certainly deserves to keep pitching as does Brad Penny. Though I think they could definitely move Penny closer to the deadline, I don't believe they'll do it right now. They need to play the cat and mouse game a bit longer. A tweaked groin, a blister or a strained oblique is what the Sox are looking for right now where the decision is made for them.
Assuming none of this takes place, this leaves Dice K as worthy of a few hundred words of discussion. First off, the fact that he was named MVP of the World Baseball Classic was a joke. I watched him pitch twice and he resembled the DiceK we've been seeing here. A lot of scrambling, middling velocity and high pitch counts. He was dominant at the WBC in '06, but not this time. I don't think he had his legs under him at any point this year.
Take a look at the guy. I see a puffy looking dude. He almost looks like one of those kids a year or so before puberty. Chubby face and features. He's such a legend back home in Japan. I just have to wonder about his conditioning. He looks 15 pounds heavier than last year. He probably slacked off during the offseason, accelerated his program for the WBC too quickly and simply does not have the foundation to build off of right now. He's already been on the DL for a "fatiqued" shoulder. His velocity has ticked up a bit since coming back, but is still less than what we are accustomed to. He still works slowly and looks almost lethargic out there.
Assuming nothing happens with a tweak or a pitcher isn't given a break or traded, the best move for the Sox would be to send Dice K to Florida for 2-3 weeks and get him back to basics. Conditioning, longtossing and plenty of shoulder work should be incorporated. It would be a shame to see the Sox trade Penny right now or invent an injury to Wakefield or something along those lines. Disabling DiceK would also save the likely roster spot of Daniel Bard or even Justin Masterson who still have options.
Lester and Beckett (other than yesterday) have been pitching well and it's probably too early to work in some sort of break for them. Wakefield certainly deserves to keep pitching as does Brad Penny. Though I think they could definitely move Penny closer to the deadline, I don't believe they'll do it right now. They need to play the cat and mouse game a bit longer. A tweaked groin, a blister or a strained oblique is what the Sox are looking for right now where the decision is made for them.
Assuming none of this takes place, this leaves Dice K as worthy of a few hundred words of discussion. First off, the fact that he was named MVP of the World Baseball Classic was a joke. I watched him pitch twice and he resembled the DiceK we've been seeing here. A lot of scrambling, middling velocity and high pitch counts. He was dominant at the WBC in '06, but not this time. I don't think he had his legs under him at any point this year.
Take a look at the guy. I see a puffy looking dude. He almost looks like one of those kids a year or so before puberty. Chubby face and features. He's such a legend back home in Japan. I just have to wonder about his conditioning. He looks 15 pounds heavier than last year. He probably slacked off during the offseason, accelerated his program for the WBC too quickly and simply does not have the foundation to build off of right now. He's already been on the DL for a "fatiqued" shoulder. His velocity has ticked up a bit since coming back, but is still less than what we are accustomed to. He still works slowly and looks almost lethargic out there.
Assuming nothing happens with a tweak or a pitcher isn't given a break or traded, the best move for the Sox would be to send Dice K to Florida for 2-3 weeks and get him back to basics. Conditioning, longtossing and plenty of shoulder work should be incorporated. It would be a shame to see the Sox trade Penny right now or invent an injury to Wakefield or something along those lines. Disabling DiceK would also save the likely roster spot of Daniel Bard or even Justin Masterson who still have options.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Radar Gun at Fenway:
Is it just me or have they tweaked this thing lately? My theory is that since they've gotten Daniel Bard, they've been playing some games out there. Bard throws hard, that's for sure. But, I'm seeing Ramon Ramirez hit 95 all of a sudden. I've seen 97-98 from Jon Lester. And, I'm seeing the same from Brad Penny. I think they must have rehired the people in charge of the gun in the 1999 All-Star game when Pedro Martinez was hitting 98-99.
Musings on a Friday:
Nice series by the Sox sweeping the Yanks. Francona, Farrell and company always seem to be one step ahead of Joe Girardi and the Yankees. Last night's game was a game they should have lost, but they found a way and head into this weekend's series against the Phillies in good shape.
Kevin Youkilis is turning into a superstar in front of our eyes. He needs to stay in that 3rd spot the rest of the year. He does everything very well. Though not regarded as a speedster, he might be one of the top Red Sox base runners. He's hitting for more power, taking his walks when they don't pitch to him and is playing great at first base.
Jason Bay is leveling off a bit. He's down now under .280, but he's still taking his walks. He is incredibly vulnerable to low and outside sliders. They are pitching him there more and the strikeouts are starting to pile up a bit. Here's hoping he makes an adjustment to either lay off these pitches or start hitting the ball to right a little bit.
Speaking of adjustments, JD Drew is locked in right now. He's been hitting the left field wall on a regular basis lately. Though I think their best alignment for the long haul is having Ellsbury leadoff followed by Pedrioa, Drew is well suited to hit 2nd. He takes a lot of pitches, has some power and runs very well. Pedrioa is wasted a bit in the leadoff spot in Francona's current lineup. Ellsbury just hasn't walked enough to get his OBP up in that .360 range which is what they have to have up there.
I give Johnny Damon a lot of credit. He's a fine player and really hasn't slipped much. He'll garner a nice contract from someone in the offseason. I can see the Yanks going hard after Jason Bay if he doesn't sign with Boston. Bay's value appears to have eclipsed Matt Holiday's at this point.
As soon as Jed Lowrie is ready and he proves he's healthy, I think Julio Lugo will be designated for assignment. I'm amazed at what Nick Green has been able to do.
It puzzles me to think about what the Sox will do when John Smoltz is ready next week. I just cannot see them trading Brad Penny now, at least not until they are sure Smoltz will be able to handle the load. Do they put Dice K back on the DL to build up arm strength? Do they give Beckett or Lester a blow? Do they invent some sort of 6 man rotation where Beckett and Lester stay in turn, and the other 4 guys get additional rest? Yes, these things always have a way of working themselves out, but this one is going down to the wire.
Justin Masterson hasn't pitched much. He's kind of the odd guy out right now. And, he doesn't slot in real well with the Phillies this weekend. The Phillies are very lefty based and have a lot of switch hitters who tend to have pretty good success against Masterson.
Kevin Youkilis is turning into a superstar in front of our eyes. He needs to stay in that 3rd spot the rest of the year. He does everything very well. Though not regarded as a speedster, he might be one of the top Red Sox base runners. He's hitting for more power, taking his walks when they don't pitch to him and is playing great at first base.
Jason Bay is leveling off a bit. He's down now under .280, but he's still taking his walks. He is incredibly vulnerable to low and outside sliders. They are pitching him there more and the strikeouts are starting to pile up a bit. Here's hoping he makes an adjustment to either lay off these pitches or start hitting the ball to right a little bit.
Speaking of adjustments, JD Drew is locked in right now. He's been hitting the left field wall on a regular basis lately. Though I think their best alignment for the long haul is having Ellsbury leadoff followed by Pedrioa, Drew is well suited to hit 2nd. He takes a lot of pitches, has some power and runs very well. Pedrioa is wasted a bit in the leadoff spot in Francona's current lineup. Ellsbury just hasn't walked enough to get his OBP up in that .360 range which is what they have to have up there.
I give Johnny Damon a lot of credit. He's a fine player and really hasn't slipped much. He'll garner a nice contract from someone in the offseason. I can see the Yanks going hard after Jason Bay if he doesn't sign with Boston. Bay's value appears to have eclipsed Matt Holiday's at this point.
As soon as Jed Lowrie is ready and he proves he's healthy, I think Julio Lugo will be designated for assignment. I'm amazed at what Nick Green has been able to do.
It puzzles me to think about what the Sox will do when John Smoltz is ready next week. I just cannot see them trading Brad Penny now, at least not until they are sure Smoltz will be able to handle the load. Do they put Dice K back on the DL to build up arm strength? Do they give Beckett or Lester a blow? Do they invent some sort of 6 man rotation where Beckett and Lester stay in turn, and the other 4 guys get additional rest? Yes, these things always have a way of working themselves out, but this one is going down to the wire.
Justin Masterson hasn't pitched much. He's kind of the odd guy out right now. And, he doesn't slot in real well with the Phillies this weekend. The Phillies are very lefty based and have a lot of switch hitters who tend to have pretty good success against Masterson.
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