Anyone else excited about John Smoltz?

John Smoltz had another successful rehab outing yesterday at Class A Greenville. He pitched 5 innings giving up only one run. He struck out 6 without walking anyone and threw 73 pitches. The plan from here is for him to have 2 more rehab starts for Pawtucket and if all goes well, he'll be with the Sox probably by the middle of the month.

I am excited to see him pitch. Kid and wife duties may interfere, but I intend on getting somewhere near Fenway the night he debuts for the Sox. If I can't get in the ballpark, I'll pull up a stool at Game On or Boston Beer Works and watch the show. I have no idea whose spot he'll take. Maybe Dice K goes back on the DL, maybe they invent a boo boo for Beckett or Lester. Maybe Wake takes a breather or they trade Brad Penny. Doesn't matter to me.

In quickly persuing the Red Sox schedule, if all goes to plan, he would likely make his first start at home against the Yankees around June 10th or so. The old yard will be hopping that night. And, the very next weekend, the Sox host the Atlanta Braves, Smoltz old team which he pitched 21 years for. Wouldn't that be appropriate and I wouldn't doubt that Smoltz is pushing for the opportunity to pitch against an organization that didn't show him much love in the offseason. Can you tell that I'm excited?

What is wrong with Jon Lester?

Is anyone out in Red Sox nation getting a bit worried about Jon Lester? I think I might be. He's 3-5 with a 6.07 ERA right now. He's given up 74 hits in 59 innings including 11 home runs. Is this the same guy that was the staff ace in the postseason last year?

I have a few theories that I'll share. Let's talk about the one most people are pointing at, namely the big increase in innings last year and the deep postseason run where every pitch is a nail biter. There is probably something to this. Look at Beckett last year after his phenomenal 2007 post season performance. He came in to camp out of shape and unprepared and immediately hurt his back. He never was the same last year.

Francona and Farrell are always saying how big of a kid Lester is and how he can handle the workload. His innings definitely went up by a longshot last year, many young pitchers have had some problems the next year after big inning increases. See Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, Fausto Carmona, etc. Certainly this could be part of it especially when you factor in those pressure packed postseason innings.

Lester's velocity has stayed consistent, he's usually in the low to mid 90's like he was last year. So seemingly his arm is sound. But, is he humping it up for the radar gun sacrificing movement and location? It appears that way at least so far.

Think of all the good lefties in baseball the last several years. Glavine, Buehrle, Cliff Lee, Hamels, Pettitte, Sabathia. With the exception of Sabathia, Lester throws harder than all of them. However, he lacks something that most lefties have, a quality changeup. Don't get me wrong, I love his cutter that bores down and in on the righties. And, certainly I love his 4 seam 95 MPH heat. But, seemingly it is all he's throwing these days. He's gotten away from the good breaking ball he throws, especially to righties and maybe throws his change 5 times a game. This is not enough. Righties are laying off that cutter and teeing off on the straight heat. When you've got the type of fastball that he has, there has to be another pitch that looks like the heater, but isn't. Most lefties use that screwball like change to run away from righties and get those ground balls. I'd like to see Lester work on this.

Quick Red Sox Positional Synopsis:

The Red Sox have had their ups and downs so far this year, but basically have been pretty consistent. I'm going to take a quick look at the team and go position by position and examine the current state of affairs.

Catcher: Jason Varitek has been fine this year. He's cut down on his strikeouts and though he's not hitting for a huge average, he's on pace for over 20 home runs. I thought he hit in buzzard luck for awhile earlier this year. I'll certainly take what the captain has provided. George Kottaras has made us forget about Kevin Cash. He's done a fine job with Wakefield who happens to be their best starter so far. George will hit a bit better as he gets more experienced, too. I hear Doug Mirabelli is selling Real Estate, good for him. That whole charade got old, thankfully Theo has moved on.

First Base: I love Kevin Youkilis, what's not to love really other than his increasing number of nagging injuries. Maybe he needs to tone it down a bit so he's not continually getting dinged up. He's a clutch hitter, always gives a good at bats, fields his position tremendously and has developed excellent power. Jeff Bailey is a fine AAA player who's a nice guy but won't ever be a consistent contributor north of I95. Mark Kotsay's return will help here.

Second Base: After a bit of a slow start, Pedroia has been great. I think that the 17 homers last year were a tease, we should not expect that. But, what we should expect is a .320 average, aggressive baserunning and great defense. Great ballplayer.

Third Base: I give Mike Lowell a ton of credit for coming back and playing every day. His fielding has been pretty good and so has his hitting. He has killed them on the bases several times by hitting in doubleplays and simply not being able to take the extra base. I hope he's able to get a little more flexibility and pain relief out of that hip because he truly looks 60 years old when he runs. And, he doesn't go all out running unless he has to. When Youk slides over, he does a nice job at third.

Shortstop: Lugo might be on his way to being released. He has no plus skills anymore. He came in as a shortstop who supposedly had an above average bat, speed and range. He's below average everywhere now. He is tentative in the field and on the bases, has no power and is allergic to RBI's. Nick Green has done a fine job when he's played, but the more Nick plays, the more you realize that he's a nice stopgap, but not an everyday shortstop. His errors are on the increase. Here's hoping Jed Lowrie can come back healthy. This is one area where the Sox may have to make a move sooner than later. I can't believe that they'll stick with Lugo on that roster much longer.

Left Field: Jason Bay has been great. I love the guy. Hits for power, runs the bases very well and always seems to throw to the right base. Too bad they couldn't get him extended in Spring Training, the Yanks will be coming after him in the offseason.

Center Field: Ellsbury is maturing before our eyes. No doubt he's a .300 hitter with his speed. He's made some adjustments at the plate, I don't think he'll ever be more than a 10 home run guy, though he does have some power. Going forward, I'd like to see a little more patience out of him so he can get that OBP up closer to .400. He is an excellent center fielder.

Right Field: JD Drew has been solid and as long as he stays on the field, he will produce. It drives me mad when in the course of his 4 at bats, he might only take 2 or 3 swings. But, in year 3 of his contract, he is what he is. I'll take it. He's a very good fielder, a good baserunner and can go on a tear at any time. Even when he's not hitting, he still gets on base.

Designated Hitter: It's still a bit too early to count him out, but David Ortiz looks done. I won't go into detail why, but it simply looks bad for him. They can stop gap things with Carter, Kotsay, Baldelli and Bailey, but if he is still where he is now in 6 weeks, they will need to do something at the All Star Break. Think of an Aubrey Huff type on the last year of his contract. Lars Anderson is not ready yet.

Bench: Baldelli seems to be hurt, I hope he gets over this. They could use his versatility going forward. They need Kotsay back, he's a huge upgrade over Bailey/Chris Carter. Nick Green has been excellent. Kottaras has been fine also.

Starting Pitching: I'm amazed at where they are with the inconsistencies they've had here. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have underachieved all season though both had good last outings. They both seem healthy and should both be in the upper echelon of starters in the league. Lester seems to be overthrowing his fastball and has gotten away a bit from that nasty cut fastball that runs in on righties. Beckett is still throwing a ton of fastballs and though his velocity is up from the end of last year, it's a still a tick down from 2007. It is a straight fastball and he throws a lot of them. They have gotten hit. His command has not been there yet. Brad Penny has gotten better lately, but really to me isn't much more that keeping the position warm for John Smoltz. Wakefield has saved the Sox from big losing streaks and never ceases to amaze. He has all but abandoned the overhand curve and now is changing speeds on his knuckler and still spotting the occasional fastball. DiceK is just coming back and though his first outing back from the DL was shaky, his velocity was back and he had nice finish on his pitches. Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden are tearing up Pawtucket and will get a look or two later this year. One might be needed in any potential deal for a shortstop or DH. Smoltz is coming back slowly and they will not rush him. I cannot wait to see him out there. This depth allows the Sox to give Beckett and Lester some time off at some point this summer and should enable everyone to be fresh down the stretch.

Bullpen: Overall, it has been fantasic. Okajima and Delcarmen have been very steady. Ramon Ramirez has developed into their best reliever. He attacks hitters and seems to reach back for more when he needs it. They are babying Saito and are making sure he will be healthy throughout. Papelbon has been shaky, they are sitting on his fastball. This has happened before and he has made adjustments. He simply does not have that consistent split that he's had in the past. He'll be fine, though it might be nice for him to knock someone down or experiment with something so a different look is given the hitters. They are too comfortable digging in right now. Daniel Bard might be here to stay, though he looks slightly freaked out when guys pull his 98 MPH heater. He needs to develop his offspeed pitches more.

Overall, things look good. Smoltz is coming back, Kostay will be a nice addition and they have Buchholz and Bowden waiting in the wings. I wouldn't be surprised to see a major deal for a shortstop or hitter. The division is starting to shake out now, with Toronto coming back to earth and the Yanks and Rays starting to play better.

2009 MSBL Braves Outlook:

The Metrowest Adult Baseball League (MABL) was founded in 1994 and is starting its 16^th season. The league which started with four teams in its inaugural season has steadily grown to today’s current twelve team format. It is an over thirty, wooden bat league and has several ex-minor league athletes and many top college players of yesteryear. The competition is very solid. The league plays the majority of games on Sunday Mornings and the season lasts from mid April right into September and the playoffs. Most teams are headquartered in the greater Route 495/Mass Pike area stretching north to Maynard, south to Milford, east to Wayland and west to Westboro.

The 2009 Millis Braves look to bounce back after 2 lackluster and mediocre seasons and hope to return to their customary power teams of 2000-2006. With several key veterans returning mixed in with a few offseason acquisitions, the Braves look to move up in the National League standings this summer.

The Braves are led on and off the field by manager Rich Moran. This is the 13^th year of the Braves and Moran is back at the helm for the 13^th time. Being in charge of a team in this league is a thankless task, yet Moran does it well. Over the years, Moran has had his role change on the team due to various team needs. A once team ace on the hill, Moran provides depth on the hill this year and returns to his role as #1 catcher.

Leading the Braves this year are a series of team veterans. CF Dale Bickford is back patrolling the outfield and leading off for the Braves. Bickford might be the fastest player in the league and gets on base with the best of them. SS Mike Pietila, probably the best all around Brave, is back to bat behind Bickford, spray linedrives all over the yard and gobble up all the grounders hit his way. Pietila is a heady, smart player. TJ May is back with his intense plate presence, no one works a pitcher like TJ. May plays all over the field including catcher, infield and outfield. John Fantasia, the team’s best RBI man is back playing first base and outfield. Johnny Fan is a great situational hitter and does a great job making sure the table setters don’t get stranded.

Raul Matos and Mike Londergan are back this year to help the Braves. Both outfielders provide excellent flexibility in the outfield and timely hitting at the dish. This is Londergan’s 10^th year as a Brave and Matos’ 8^th. Both will be counted on heavily this year. Second year man Justin Peterson is back this year. Mainly an outfielder who can also play some 3^rd base, Peterson has made great strides in the offseason with his swing and has been a force so far this season. Justin’s brother Toby has joined the Braves this year and gives the Bravos excellent diversity around the diamond and a nice bat!

Flexibility was a key in the offseason for the Braves and they found plenty of it with the offseason acquisitions of Jamie Nix, Mike Connolly and Kevin Specter. Nix was one of the top pitchers in the league for several years, slots right into the cleanup role for the Braves with his power and helps on the left side of the infield and outfield. Nix will pitch many big innings for the Braves this year with his power stuff. Connolly can fly and is an excellent line drive hitter. He is truly a 9 position guy, above average anywhere you put him. He is a key addition for the Braves. Specter is an excellent infielder with a great arm and a smart, disciplined plate approach who will fill key roles all season.

Big Steve Purdy is back this season after a 4 year hiatus. The once Braves closer is back and better than ever. He struck out the side in his first appearance this year. Purdy also brings another power bat to the middle of the order and provides depth at first base. The Braves also return another original Brave from the inaugural 1997 season. Pitcher and outfielder Jim Callaghan is back for a 13^th season. A team ace for many years, Callaghan finally worked his way back to pitching last year after a 3 year struggle with shoulder problems and he won 7 games for the Braves. His arm seems sound again this year and he brings a solid bat to the 3 hole in the order with his foul line to foul line slashing. Nix, Callaghan, Purdy and Moran will likely do most of the pitching this year, the Braves have not had this kind of depth on the hill for a long time.

The Braves will hope to get some help during the season from 3 part-time guys. MSBL Hall of Famer Marc Sanfacon will be back to help anchor the infield and provide a steady presence all around. 10 year veteran Jimmy McLaughlin hopes to come back from injury and sickness to provide his signature power bat. And, former team MVP Christo Lagos will be back to lend his infectious awesome attitude and unbelievable skills all over the field.

With 2 straight years of no playoffs, Moran and the Braves are hoping that the offseason additions will get them on track to make a return to the playoffs in 2009 . The team will miss an original “cornerstone” from the early days in CF Paul “Chip” Chiodo who has decided to hang up the spikes this year. Chiodo is at or near the top in many all time Braves categories including outfield assists, runs, triples and stolen bases. He will be missed greatly

Loose Scraps on a Monday:

As an unabashed Red Sox suckup, I am starting this blog to officially nominate myself to start the Chris Carter fan club. As stated earlier in this blog, I love Mark Kotsay and what he brings (more than Darren Bragg, stop chuckling). However, he's hurt and this spot is open. Thankfully, Brad Wilkerson's 50% strikeout rate looks like it will run him out of town. Jeff Bailey is a good soldier and has done well in his Red Sox stints. They could do much worse. However, you simply cannot ignore what Chris Carter has done this spring.

Carter hit his 6th homer yesterday. He's not simply hitting them against AA pitching, either. I've been reading that he's super intense and is always grabbing coaches to hit him balls at first and in the outfield on back fields after practice. Obviously the guy wants to get better and he is. The Sox have little organizational power and the fact that he's a lefty swinger makes him a perfect complement to Rocco Baldelli. I want to see them hitting for Varitek this year. Lowell will need a day or two off a week initially. I love Carter for this role.

One guy I feel for right now is Clay Buchholz. His ERA is so low this spring that you can't even see it. At this point, it looks pretty much inevitable that he's heading back to Pawtucket. I love the aggressiveness the Sox showed in grabbing Brad Penny and John Smoltz. I admire the mutual admiration that Sox management and Tim Wakefield have. But, it's a shame that a 24 year old pitcher with lights out stuff has to go down I 95. I understand it, but that doesn't mean I have to like it. Clay had a reputation as a bit of a wild child when he came here and I think his no hitter in '07 likely went to his head. He was unprepared physically and mentally last year. He pitched scared. Something has clicked with him and he looks ready to move forward. People may forget how highly touted he was a year or two back. Think David Price, think Joba Chamberlain. He was on everyone's top prospect list.

Moving forward, you've got the big 3 of Beckett, Lester and Dice-K. Wakefield slots 4th with Penny behind him with Buchholz ready to step in. I think it's inevitable this year that the Sox and Wakefield need to have "the conversation". I love Wake, love what's he's done and what he stands for. I'd even quietly extend him for next year. But, at some point this year, they need to temporarily put him somewhere where he won't be in the way. I think we can all agree that he's pitched his last postseason game for the Sox already. If Penny comes through and Smoltz comes back strong and everyone is reasonably healthy, I think Wake needs to disappear for awhile. Buchholz figures in here as well. You know that no one will get more than 30 starts, they'll build in rest and breaks, etc. But, at some point, you got to put your talented guys out there.

Is Joe Girardi getting it?

I have no idea why I'm about to write a few hundred words about the hated Yankees. Perhaps it was the sugar in the bowl of Golden Grahams I just had. Anyway, back from work tonight and I had the great pleasure of printing the New York Times tonight. Editors note: I'm a pressman at the Boston Globe, but we are owned by the New York Times and we print the New England distribution of it at work. I occasionally work this press.

But I digress. . . Not that I was reading the paper or anything, I was too busy finetuning things so the transplanted New Yorkers up here don't throw a hissy fit. But, I just happened to stumble upon a brief article that mentions the possibility of Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon flip-flopping in the batting order. Did Bill James or Rob Neyer get Cashman or Girardi's ear? Not sure, but to this ardent Red Sox fan, this makes complete sense. And, I will tell you why.

Jeter's OBP has historically been better than Damon's. He still runs pretty well. He's good for 180 hits a year and maybe 70 walks. His power has waned and that ballpark does him no favors. So, Jeter leads off with a single or walk. He's on first and getting a decent lead. He's no burner, but still steals quite a bit and takes a pretty good lead. The first baseman has to keep him honest, right? So who comes up? Our beloved Damon. Johnny's funky swing produces a lot of pulled grounders. Some of them could find this wide hole with the first baseman holding Jeter on. Instant first and third with the big boys coming up. Johnny likes to drop an occasional bunt as I recall. If Johnny can bunt towards first, it's him against the pitcher. Even at age 35, I like Damon's chances here.

You want to hit and run with J and J (Jeter and Johnny)? Damon doesn't swing and miss much at all. With the shortstop likely covering second, Damon has the bat control to poke one to the left side. Though Jeter's home run power has sagged, he still hits plenty of doubles. With him on second, Damon is the perfect guy to pull the ball towards second. If he doesn't get it though, Jeter's on 3rd with one out. If he gets it through, it's 1-0 Yanks, Damon's on first and Texiera is up. Hopefully this will be the last Yanks musing for awhile, but I'm amazed that something this practical has finally been discussed.

Brad Wilkerson Can't Hit:

OK

So, I'm up at 1:00 in the morning. And, what comes to mind? The 25th spot on the Red Sox roster, of course. No one applauded the Sox bringing back Mark Kotsay more than I did. He fills several roles and fills them all well. Sean Casey is on the MLB Network now and he's informative, witty and looks like he might have a decent second career as a TV guy. However, he was about the worst bench player the Sox have ever had. He had no power, could not run and could not field. Not too many years earlier, he could do 2 of the 3 here. I saw him perform quite well in the 2006 World Series for Detroit. Something happened to Mr. Casey before he came here, though. Basically, to be kind, it looks like he swallowed a beach ball and he lost whatever mobility he had in the field.

This is likely why the Sox went after Mark Kotsay last year. Kotsay is a pretty good player. He's an above average outfielder who can play all 3 outfield positions. He has a bit of power, runs pretty well and has been a starting player for the better part of a decade. This was a great pickup for the Sox down the stretch last year. They had determined that Casey could no longer bend over in the field and Kotsay ended up playing a significant role in the playoffs last year when Mike Lowell's hip no longer allowed him to play. Kotsay played first base, a position he had rarely if ever played. He looked like a seasoned vet in the field and though he hit in tough luck, he was an important part of an almost World Series team.

During the off-season, I figured Kotsay would be shooting to get a starting job somewhere. He's likely still productive enough to start on a small market team. I was thrilled that the Red Sox were able to bring him back in January. He gives them huge protection at 5 positions and with the injury concerns of David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Rocco Baldelli, he was that perfect fit. Of course, bad health intervened and he's likely to miss at least the first month of the season with a back injury.

So, I've digressed badly here. Brad Wilkerson is in the title and I should be getting around to talking about him. There is obviously a spot on this roster for an extra outfield/first base type at least until Kotsay comes back. Not 24-36 hours after the Kotsay injury was announced, Wilkerson was brought on board on a minor league deal. Wilkerson has bounced around the league for several years, bringing a versatile glove, a lefty power bat and a lot of strikeouts with him. When they signed Casey last year, it was rumored that Wilkerson was really the guy they wanted, but got more money elsewhere. Anyway, so this is a nice opportunity for Wilkerson and surely he has the upperhand because he can play all 3 outfield positions as well as first base.

I don't really want to get into Wilkerson's supposed ability to play CF. I haven't seen any evidence of this skill, he's below average in the corners and a plodder to boot. It's in someone's scouting report that he can play CF, so we'll run with that. Anyway, I hope the Sox are considering Chris Carter or Jeff Bailey for this spot instead. Wilkerson has struck out in exactly half of his at bats this spring and shows no signs that he can hit any type of major league fastball. Carter and Bailey, though extremely limited with their gloves, have major league bats and both seem to have the desire to hustle through their limitations. My goal is to see Wilkerson pack his bags soon and give one of these career minor leaguers a shot with the big club. We'll see how it plays out.