What is wrong with Jon Lester?

Is anyone out in Red Sox nation getting a bit worried about Jon Lester? I think I might be. He's 3-5 with a 6.07 ERA right now. He's given up 74 hits in 59 innings including 11 home runs. Is this the same guy that was the staff ace in the postseason last year?

I have a few theories that I'll share. Let's talk about the one most people are pointing at, namely the big increase in innings last year and the deep postseason run where every pitch is a nail biter. There is probably something to this. Look at Beckett last year after his phenomenal 2007 post season performance. He came in to camp out of shape and unprepared and immediately hurt his back. He never was the same last year.

Francona and Farrell are always saying how big of a kid Lester is and how he can handle the workload. His innings definitely went up by a longshot last year, many young pitchers have had some problems the next year after big inning increases. See Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, Fausto Carmona, etc. Certainly this could be part of it especially when you factor in those pressure packed postseason innings.

Lester's velocity has stayed consistent, he's usually in the low to mid 90's like he was last year. So seemingly his arm is sound. But, is he humping it up for the radar gun sacrificing movement and location? It appears that way at least so far.

Think of all the good lefties in baseball the last several years. Glavine, Buehrle, Cliff Lee, Hamels, Pettitte, Sabathia. With the exception of Sabathia, Lester throws harder than all of them. However, he lacks something that most lefties have, a quality changeup. Don't get me wrong, I love his cutter that bores down and in on the righties. And, certainly I love his 4 seam 95 MPH heat. But, seemingly it is all he's throwing these days. He's gotten away from the good breaking ball he throws, especially to righties and maybe throws his change 5 times a game. This is not enough. Righties are laying off that cutter and teeing off on the straight heat. When you've got the type of fastball that he has, there has to be another pitch that looks like the heater, but isn't. Most lefties use that screwball like change to run away from righties and get those ground balls. I'd like to see Lester work on this.

Quick Red Sox Positional Synopsis:

The Red Sox have had their ups and downs so far this year, but basically have been pretty consistent. I'm going to take a quick look at the team and go position by position and examine the current state of affairs.

Catcher: Jason Varitek has been fine this year. He's cut down on his strikeouts and though he's not hitting for a huge average, he's on pace for over 20 home runs. I thought he hit in buzzard luck for awhile earlier this year. I'll certainly take what the captain has provided. George Kottaras has made us forget about Kevin Cash. He's done a fine job with Wakefield who happens to be their best starter so far. George will hit a bit better as he gets more experienced, too. I hear Doug Mirabelli is selling Real Estate, good for him. That whole charade got old, thankfully Theo has moved on.

First Base: I love Kevin Youkilis, what's not to love really other than his increasing number of nagging injuries. Maybe he needs to tone it down a bit so he's not continually getting dinged up. He's a clutch hitter, always gives a good at bats, fields his position tremendously and has developed excellent power. Jeff Bailey is a fine AAA player who's a nice guy but won't ever be a consistent contributor north of I95. Mark Kotsay's return will help here.

Second Base: After a bit of a slow start, Pedroia has been great. I think that the 17 homers last year were a tease, we should not expect that. But, what we should expect is a .320 average, aggressive baserunning and great defense. Great ballplayer.

Third Base: I give Mike Lowell a ton of credit for coming back and playing every day. His fielding has been pretty good and so has his hitting. He has killed them on the bases several times by hitting in doubleplays and simply not being able to take the extra base. I hope he's able to get a little more flexibility and pain relief out of that hip because he truly looks 60 years old when he runs. And, he doesn't go all out running unless he has to. When Youk slides over, he does a nice job at third.

Shortstop: Lugo might be on his way to being released. He has no plus skills anymore. He came in as a shortstop who supposedly had an above average bat, speed and range. He's below average everywhere now. He is tentative in the field and on the bases, has no power and is allergic to RBI's. Nick Green has done a fine job when he's played, but the more Nick plays, the more you realize that he's a nice stopgap, but not an everyday shortstop. His errors are on the increase. Here's hoping Jed Lowrie can come back healthy. This is one area where the Sox may have to make a move sooner than later. I can't believe that they'll stick with Lugo on that roster much longer.

Left Field: Jason Bay has been great. I love the guy. Hits for power, runs the bases very well and always seems to throw to the right base. Too bad they couldn't get him extended in Spring Training, the Yanks will be coming after him in the offseason.

Center Field: Ellsbury is maturing before our eyes. No doubt he's a .300 hitter with his speed. He's made some adjustments at the plate, I don't think he'll ever be more than a 10 home run guy, though he does have some power. Going forward, I'd like to see a little more patience out of him so he can get that OBP up closer to .400. He is an excellent center fielder.

Right Field: JD Drew has been solid and as long as he stays on the field, he will produce. It drives me mad when in the course of his 4 at bats, he might only take 2 or 3 swings. But, in year 3 of his contract, he is what he is. I'll take it. He's a very good fielder, a good baserunner and can go on a tear at any time. Even when he's not hitting, he still gets on base.

Designated Hitter: It's still a bit too early to count him out, but David Ortiz looks done. I won't go into detail why, but it simply looks bad for him. They can stop gap things with Carter, Kotsay, Baldelli and Bailey, but if he is still where he is now in 6 weeks, they will need to do something at the All Star Break. Think of an Aubrey Huff type on the last year of his contract. Lars Anderson is not ready yet.

Bench: Baldelli seems to be hurt, I hope he gets over this. They could use his versatility going forward. They need Kotsay back, he's a huge upgrade over Bailey/Chris Carter. Nick Green has been excellent. Kottaras has been fine also.

Starting Pitching: I'm amazed at where they are with the inconsistencies they've had here. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have underachieved all season though both had good last outings. They both seem healthy and should both be in the upper echelon of starters in the league. Lester seems to be overthrowing his fastball and has gotten away a bit from that nasty cut fastball that runs in on righties. Beckett is still throwing a ton of fastballs and though his velocity is up from the end of last year, it's a still a tick down from 2007. It is a straight fastball and he throws a lot of them. They have gotten hit. His command has not been there yet. Brad Penny has gotten better lately, but really to me isn't much more that keeping the position warm for John Smoltz. Wakefield has saved the Sox from big losing streaks and never ceases to amaze. He has all but abandoned the overhand curve and now is changing speeds on his knuckler and still spotting the occasional fastball. DiceK is just coming back and though his first outing back from the DL was shaky, his velocity was back and he had nice finish on his pitches. Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden are tearing up Pawtucket and will get a look or two later this year. One might be needed in any potential deal for a shortstop or DH. Smoltz is coming back slowly and they will not rush him. I cannot wait to see him out there. This depth allows the Sox to give Beckett and Lester some time off at some point this summer and should enable everyone to be fresh down the stretch.

Bullpen: Overall, it has been fantasic. Okajima and Delcarmen have been very steady. Ramon Ramirez has developed into their best reliever. He attacks hitters and seems to reach back for more when he needs it. They are babying Saito and are making sure he will be healthy throughout. Papelbon has been shaky, they are sitting on his fastball. This has happened before and he has made adjustments. He simply does not have that consistent split that he's had in the past. He'll be fine, though it might be nice for him to knock someone down or experiment with something so a different look is given the hitters. They are too comfortable digging in right now. Daniel Bard might be here to stay, though he looks slightly freaked out when guys pull his 98 MPH heater. He needs to develop his offspeed pitches more.

Overall, things look good. Smoltz is coming back, Kostay will be a nice addition and they have Buchholz and Bowden waiting in the wings. I wouldn't be surprised to see a major deal for a shortstop or hitter. The division is starting to shake out now, with Toronto coming back to earth and the Yanks and Rays starting to play better.

2009 MSBL Braves Outlook:

The Metrowest Adult Baseball League (MABL) was founded in 1994 and is starting its 16^th season. The league which started with four teams in its inaugural season has steadily grown to today’s current twelve team format. It is an over thirty, wooden bat league and has several ex-minor league athletes and many top college players of yesteryear. The competition is very solid. The league plays the majority of games on Sunday Mornings and the season lasts from mid April right into September and the playoffs. Most teams are headquartered in the greater Route 495/Mass Pike area stretching north to Maynard, south to Milford, east to Wayland and west to Westboro.

The 2009 Millis Braves look to bounce back after 2 lackluster and mediocre seasons and hope to return to their customary power teams of 2000-2006. With several key veterans returning mixed in with a few offseason acquisitions, the Braves look to move up in the National League standings this summer.

The Braves are led on and off the field by manager Rich Moran. This is the 13^th year of the Braves and Moran is back at the helm for the 13^th time. Being in charge of a team in this league is a thankless task, yet Moran does it well. Over the years, Moran has had his role change on the team due to various team needs. A once team ace on the hill, Moran provides depth on the hill this year and returns to his role as #1 catcher.

Leading the Braves this year are a series of team veterans. CF Dale Bickford is back patrolling the outfield and leading off for the Braves. Bickford might be the fastest player in the league and gets on base with the best of them. SS Mike Pietila, probably the best all around Brave, is back to bat behind Bickford, spray linedrives all over the yard and gobble up all the grounders hit his way. Pietila is a heady, smart player. TJ May is back with his intense plate presence, no one works a pitcher like TJ. May plays all over the field including catcher, infield and outfield. John Fantasia, the team’s best RBI man is back playing first base and outfield. Johnny Fan is a great situational hitter and does a great job making sure the table setters don’t get stranded.

Raul Matos and Mike Londergan are back this year to help the Braves. Both outfielders provide excellent flexibility in the outfield and timely hitting at the dish. This is Londergan’s 10^th year as a Brave and Matos’ 8^th. Both will be counted on heavily this year. Second year man Justin Peterson is back this year. Mainly an outfielder who can also play some 3^rd base, Peterson has made great strides in the offseason with his swing and has been a force so far this season. Justin’s brother Toby has joined the Braves this year and gives the Bravos excellent diversity around the diamond and a nice bat!

Flexibility was a key in the offseason for the Braves and they found plenty of it with the offseason acquisitions of Jamie Nix, Mike Connolly and Kevin Specter. Nix was one of the top pitchers in the league for several years, slots right into the cleanup role for the Braves with his power and helps on the left side of the infield and outfield. Nix will pitch many big innings for the Braves this year with his power stuff. Connolly can fly and is an excellent line drive hitter. He is truly a 9 position guy, above average anywhere you put him. He is a key addition for the Braves. Specter is an excellent infielder with a great arm and a smart, disciplined plate approach who will fill key roles all season.

Big Steve Purdy is back this season after a 4 year hiatus. The once Braves closer is back and better than ever. He struck out the side in his first appearance this year. Purdy also brings another power bat to the middle of the order and provides depth at first base. The Braves also return another original Brave from the inaugural 1997 season. Pitcher and outfielder Jim Callaghan is back for a 13^th season. A team ace for many years, Callaghan finally worked his way back to pitching last year after a 3 year struggle with shoulder problems and he won 7 games for the Braves. His arm seems sound again this year and he brings a solid bat to the 3 hole in the order with his foul line to foul line slashing. Nix, Callaghan, Purdy and Moran will likely do most of the pitching this year, the Braves have not had this kind of depth on the hill for a long time.

The Braves will hope to get some help during the season from 3 part-time guys. MSBL Hall of Famer Marc Sanfacon will be back to help anchor the infield and provide a steady presence all around. 10 year veteran Jimmy McLaughlin hopes to come back from injury and sickness to provide his signature power bat. And, former team MVP Christo Lagos will be back to lend his infectious awesome attitude and unbelievable skills all over the field.

With 2 straight years of no playoffs, Moran and the Braves are hoping that the offseason additions will get them on track to make a return to the playoffs in 2009 . The team will miss an original “cornerstone” from the early days in CF Paul “Chip” Chiodo who has decided to hang up the spikes this year. Chiodo is at or near the top in many all time Braves categories including outfield assists, runs, triples and stolen bases. He will be missed greatly