Red Sox/Angels Preview

I think we all know the script. The Red Sox have owned the Angels historically in post-season action. The way both teams are constructed this year begs a much closer look, though. I still think the Red Sox will come out on top. But, this is not '04, '07 or even '08. Both teams have gotten to this point in vastly different ways.

I think we need to spend a lot of well chosen words in talking about the Angels. They are a completely different team than what we are used to. Once an aggressive team that was built on speed and a dominant back end bullpen, the Angels as a whole have come full circle this year. Seemingly, the late offseason addition of Bobby Abreu and his patient approach to hitting has rubbed off on many teammates. Chone Figgins has turned into a premier leadoff guy with close to a .400 OBP with over 40 steals. Abreu also checked in with a .390 OBP setting up the big guys of Tori Hunter, Vlad Guerrero, Kendry Morales (34 homers, 108 RBI's) and Juan Rivera (88 ribbies). This is a formidable offense with tough outs top to bottom including Red Sox killer Mike Napoli (20 bombs), the 2nd base combo of Kendrick/Izturis and SS Erick Aybar (hitting .312). There are no spots to relax and with this improved patience, decent power and several guys who can run, the Red Sox pitching staff will have their work cut out for them.

The Angels starting rotation consists of John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders. All have been tough on the Red Sox at times, especially Kazmir when he was at Tampa Bay. Interestingly, the Sox have hit Lackey well historically (including the post-season), but were almost no hit by him earlier this year. Same with Saunders who occasionally looks like a world beater and has pitched very well down the stretch. Kazmir can be trick or treat, but has pitched very well overall since being acquired by Los Angeles in late August. Weaver is steady and has been the most consistent starter all year. The bullpen, always a huge strength of the Angels with the likes of K-Rod, Scot Shields, and Justin Speier has been the team's Achilles heel. Closer Brian Fuentes has been shaky and other than veteran soft tosser Darren Oliver, the majority of the bullpen including set-up righties Kevin Jepsen and Jason Bulger are unproven in the post-season.

Getting to the Red Sox, they come into the post-season reasonably healthy and with some new weapons. Assuming the last week bumps and bruises of Drew, Lowell and Gonzalez are no factor, they are poised to make a strong run towards their 3rd title in 6 years. The absolute key to any Sox run starts and finishes with Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. If they are right, no team boasts a one/two punch of power pitching from both sides of the bump. Both have great post-season track records and we all have seen that power guys dominate in October. This is a huge advantage to the Sox in a 5 game series. The Angels simply do not have an ace with these type credentials. The Sox also boast plenty of power arms in the bullpen supporting Jonathan Papelbon. Daniel Bard and Billy Wagner will be asked to get many of the big outs in the 7th and 8th innings. Okajima should be rested and ready to help along with Ramon Ramirez. Again, this is a huge advantage over the Halos.

Again, assuming good health, Alex Gonzalez has transformed the Red Sox into an above average defensive team. One could argue that other than left field and catcher, they are very solid making the plays with better than league average range. We've all seen several track meets this year with all the base stealing with Varitek and even Martinez behind the plate. The Angels have the personnel to make this happen. However, 2 of the biggest culprits on the hill (Wakefield and Brad Penny) won't be pitching which should help some. The other factor is that it appears that Jason Varitek will be a bit part this series. Martinez is certainly not a great catcher, but at this stage in his career a better alternative than the captain. Much of this will be moot if Lester and Beckett do their thing and pitch the way they are capable. Clay Buchholz, despite 2 shaky starts, has great stuff and Dice-K should be able to give them 5-6 serviceable innings as their 4th starter.

Rounding out the Red Sox roster should be interesting. They may only carry 10 pitchers which would likely leave Paul Byrd and Manny Delcarmen out. They may opt for a 3rd catcher (Kottaras), an extra infielder (if they can find a healthy one) or speedy outfielder (Joey Gathright) taking the Dave Roberts role. The last minute health of Jed Lowrie, Nick Green and Rocco Baldelli will likely make any predictions here difficult. Lowrie hit a homer the other day batting lefty, but was grimacing noticably after the swing. Green has a herniated disk in his back, we all know how those can be and Baldelli seemingly just can't stay healthy. This could open roster spots for the likes of Gathright, Chris Woodward, Brian Anderson and/or Josh Reddick.

I'm going with Boston winning the series in 4 games. Lester and Beckett do their thing in California. The Angels will knock Buchholz around in game 3 to force a game 4. Game 4, Dice K throws his usual root canal game of 120 pitches in 5 innings, they use 6 relievers and win 6-5 with Pap getting the save. This is how I see it.

Don't Everyone Panic Just Yet:

I know the Red Sox have been playing lousy lately. In listening to some of the radio shows, some people are starting to panic. I'll admit, it was nice seeing the Sox play a clean game last night using their regular lineup and giving us a sneak preview on how they intend on using the bullpen. But, even if they had kept their losing streak intact over the weekend against lame duck manager Eric Wedge and the Indians, I really don't think it would have mattered much. They are in good shape going into the post season and despite national pundits forecasting their swift exit, I really think the Angels are the team to be worried right now. More on that in a future blog post.

The Red Sox have been in a state of constant adjustment these last few weeks. Adjustment #1 has been the gradual understanding that Jason Varitek will be a bit player in these playoffs. After acquiring Victor Martinez at the deadline, I really think Theo, Tito and many Sox fans thought that taking maybe 15-20% of Varitek's workload away would spark up his bat and keep him fresh for the playoffs. This has proven to be a completely false statement. Varitek's bat has gotten worse (hard to imagine it getting worse than it already was) and his defense seems to have dropped off. Most opponents these last several weeks have turned their baserunners into track stars and have given even the slow footed the green light to run. Varitek by far has given up the most stolen bases in the league this year. And, yes, Red Sox pitchers are instructed not to mess with slide steps too much, but Varitek's average time getting the ball to second of 2.2 seconds gives even a slide step pitcher no chance. His arm is shot and his reaction times are dulled. This has been hard to watch, his decline has been ongoing the last 18 months, but it has accelerated almost at the level of my previous employer's downfall!

Another reason for their lackluster play lately is pretty obvious as well. The injuries to Lester and Beckett and the refusal of the Sox to overuse their key bullpen guys have put some truly putrid options out there. Theo has been running himself ragged looking for mop-up guys in the organization (Kyle Snyder would look good now). Watching Hunter Jones, Dustin Richardson and Fernando Cabrerra put gasoline on most every fire has not exactly been inspiring to watch. Theo has had to play games with the 40 man roster including DL'ing Tazawa and Aaron Bates to get some guys up with some kind of a pulse. They even had to designate my boy Chris Carter for assignment earlier this week to get Cabrerra here. Paul Byrd will be able to take the the mop-up role going forward, but these last several weeks have been brutal. A short outing by Lester, Beckett missing a start, Wakefield crippled out there, etc. has put the Sox in unwinnable situations.

All this being said, I really like the starting pitching going into the playoffs. Lester's injury might have been a blessing. He got some rest and also only threw 80 plus pitches last night. He should be refreshed. Beckett missing a start can only help him. He had pitched a bit better his last few times out after a tough 6 week stretch. Buchholz has been very solid and will be starting game 3 at Fenway. Dice K really has given them 4 pretty solid starts since coming back from the fat farm. They have made a conscious effort to not overuse Papelbon, Wagner, Bard and Okajima these last few weeks. How they got to Papelbon last night will likely be the blueprint for the playoffs. Use Bard and Wagner to get the tough 7th and 8th inning outs. Okie, Ramon Ramirez and Saito are no slouches also. This shapes up as a team strength as long as they leave Manny Delcarmen back in Hyde Park or in the bullpen.