I think we all know the script. The Red Sox have owned the Angels historically in post-season action. The way both teams are constructed this year begs a much closer look, though. I still think the Red Sox will come out on top. But, this is not '04, '07 or even '08. Both teams have gotten to this point in vastly different ways.
I think we need to spend a lot of well chosen words in talking about the Angels. They are a completely different team than what we are used to. Once an aggressive team that was built on speed and a dominant back end bullpen, the Angels as a whole have come full circle this year. Seemingly, the late offseason addition of Bobby Abreu and his patient approach to hitting has rubbed off on many teammates. Chone Figgins has turned into a premier leadoff guy with close to a .400 OBP with over 40 steals. Abreu also checked in with a .390 OBP setting up the big guys of Tori Hunter, Vlad Guerrero, Kendry Morales (34 homers, 108 RBI's) and Juan Rivera (88 ribbies). This is a formidable offense with tough outs top to bottom including Red Sox killer Mike Napoli (20 bombs), the 2nd base combo of Kendrick/Izturis and SS Erick Aybar (hitting .312). There are no spots to relax and with this improved patience, decent power and several guys who can run, the Red Sox pitching staff will have their work cut out for them.
The Angels starting rotation consists of John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders. All have been tough on the Red Sox at times, especially Kazmir when he was at Tampa Bay. Interestingly, the Sox have hit Lackey well historically (including the post-season), but were almost no hit by him earlier this year. Same with Saunders who occasionally looks like a world beater and has pitched very well down the stretch. Kazmir can be trick or treat, but has pitched very well overall since being acquired by Los Angeles in late August. Weaver is steady and has been the most consistent starter all year. The bullpen, always a huge strength of the Angels with the likes of K-Rod, Scot Shields, and Justin Speier has been the team's Achilles heel. Closer Brian Fuentes has been shaky and other than veteran soft tosser Darren Oliver, the majority of the bullpen including set-up righties Kevin Jepsen and Jason Bulger are unproven in the post-season.
Getting to the Red Sox, they come into the post-season reasonably healthy and with some new weapons. Assuming the last week bumps and bruises of Drew, Lowell and Gonzalez are no factor, they are poised to make a strong run towards their 3rd title in 6 years. The absolute key to any Sox run starts and finishes with Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. If they are right, no team boasts a one/two punch of power pitching from both sides of the bump. Both have great post-season track records and we all have seen that power guys dominate in October. This is a huge advantage to the Sox in a 5 game series. The Angels simply do not have an ace with these type credentials. The Sox also boast plenty of power arms in the bullpen supporting Jonathan Papelbon. Daniel Bard and Billy Wagner will be asked to get many of the big outs in the 7th and 8th innings. Okajima should be rested and ready to help along with Ramon Ramirez. Again, this is a huge advantage over the Halos.
Again, assuming good health, Alex Gonzalez has transformed the Red Sox into an above average defensive team. One could argue that other than left field and catcher, they are very solid making the plays with better than league average range. We've all seen several track meets this year with all the base stealing with Varitek and even Martinez behind the plate. The Angels have the personnel to make this happen. However, 2 of the biggest culprits on the hill (Wakefield and Brad Penny) won't be pitching which should help some. The other factor is that it appears that Jason Varitek will be a bit part this series. Martinez is certainly not a great catcher, but at this stage in his career a better alternative than the captain. Much of this will be moot if Lester and Beckett do their thing and pitch the way they are capable. Clay Buchholz, despite 2 shaky starts, has great stuff and Dice-K should be able to give them 5-6 serviceable innings as their 4th starter.
Rounding out the Red Sox roster should be interesting. They may only carry 10 pitchers which would likely leave Paul Byrd and Manny Delcarmen out. They may opt for a 3rd catcher (Kottaras), an extra infielder (if they can find a healthy one) or speedy outfielder (Joey Gathright) taking the Dave Roberts role. The last minute health of Jed Lowrie, Nick Green and Rocco Baldelli will likely make any predictions here difficult. Lowrie hit a homer the other day batting lefty, but was grimacing noticably after the swing. Green has a herniated disk in his back, we all know how those can be and Baldelli seemingly just can't stay healthy. This could open roster spots for the likes of Gathright, Chris Woodward, Brian Anderson and/or Josh Reddick.
I'm going with Boston winning the series in 4 games. Lester and Beckett do their thing in California. The Angels will knock Buchholz around in game 3 to force a game 4. Game 4, Dice K throws his usual root canal game of 120 pitches in 5 innings, they use 6 relievers and win 6-5 with Pap getting the save. This is how I see it.
Monday, October 5, 2009
Friday, October 2, 2009
Don't Everyone Panic Just Yet:
I know the Red Sox have been playing lousy lately. In listening to some of the radio shows, some people are starting to panic. I'll admit, it was nice seeing the Sox play a clean game last night using their regular lineup and giving us a sneak preview on how they intend on using the bullpen. But, even if they had kept their losing streak intact over the weekend against lame duck manager Eric Wedge and the Indians, I really don't think it would have mattered much. They are in good shape going into the post season and despite national pundits forecasting their swift exit, I really think the Angels are the team to be worried right now. More on that in a future blog post.
The Red Sox have been in a state of constant adjustment these last few weeks. Adjustment #1 has been the gradual understanding that Jason Varitek will be a bit player in these playoffs. After acquiring Victor Martinez at the deadline, I really think Theo, Tito and many Sox fans thought that taking maybe 15-20% of Varitek's workload away would spark up his bat and keep him fresh for the playoffs. This has proven to be a completely false statement. Varitek's bat has gotten worse (hard to imagine it getting worse than it already was) and his defense seems to have dropped off. Most opponents these last several weeks have turned their baserunners into track stars and have given even the slow footed the green light to run. Varitek by far has given up the most stolen bases in the league this year. And, yes, Red Sox pitchers are instructed not to mess with slide steps too much, but Varitek's average time getting the ball to second of 2.2 seconds gives even a slide step pitcher no chance. His arm is shot and his reaction times are dulled. This has been hard to watch, his decline has been ongoing the last 18 months, but it has accelerated almost at the level of my previous employer's downfall!
Another reason for their lackluster play lately is pretty obvious as well. The injuries to Lester and Beckett and the refusal of the Sox to overuse their key bullpen guys have put some truly putrid options out there. Theo has been running himself ragged looking for mop-up guys in the organization (Kyle Snyder would look good now). Watching Hunter Jones, Dustin Richardson and Fernando Cabrerra put gasoline on most every fire has not exactly been inspiring to watch. Theo has had to play games with the 40 man roster including DL'ing Tazawa and Aaron Bates to get some guys up with some kind of a pulse. They even had to designate my boy Chris Carter for assignment earlier this week to get Cabrerra here. Paul Byrd will be able to take the the mop-up role going forward, but these last several weeks have been brutal. A short outing by Lester, Beckett missing a start, Wakefield crippled out there, etc. has put the Sox in unwinnable situations.
All this being said, I really like the starting pitching going into the playoffs. Lester's injury might have been a blessing. He got some rest and also only threw 80 plus pitches last night. He should be refreshed. Beckett missing a start can only help him. He had pitched a bit better his last few times out after a tough 6 week stretch. Buchholz has been very solid and will be starting game 3 at Fenway. Dice K really has given them 4 pretty solid starts since coming back from the fat farm. They have made a conscious effort to not overuse Papelbon, Wagner, Bard and Okajima these last few weeks. How they got to Papelbon last night will likely be the blueprint for the playoffs. Use Bard and Wagner to get the tough 7th and 8th inning outs. Okie, Ramon Ramirez and Saito are no slouches also. This shapes up as a team strength as long as they leave Manny Delcarmen back in Hyde Park or in the bullpen.
The Red Sox have been in a state of constant adjustment these last few weeks. Adjustment #1 has been the gradual understanding that Jason Varitek will be a bit player in these playoffs. After acquiring Victor Martinez at the deadline, I really think Theo, Tito and many Sox fans thought that taking maybe 15-20% of Varitek's workload away would spark up his bat and keep him fresh for the playoffs. This has proven to be a completely false statement. Varitek's bat has gotten worse (hard to imagine it getting worse than it already was) and his defense seems to have dropped off. Most opponents these last several weeks have turned their baserunners into track stars and have given even the slow footed the green light to run. Varitek by far has given up the most stolen bases in the league this year. And, yes, Red Sox pitchers are instructed not to mess with slide steps too much, but Varitek's average time getting the ball to second of 2.2 seconds gives even a slide step pitcher no chance. His arm is shot and his reaction times are dulled. This has been hard to watch, his decline has been ongoing the last 18 months, but it has accelerated almost at the level of my previous employer's downfall!
Another reason for their lackluster play lately is pretty obvious as well. The injuries to Lester and Beckett and the refusal of the Sox to overuse their key bullpen guys have put some truly putrid options out there. Theo has been running himself ragged looking for mop-up guys in the organization (Kyle Snyder would look good now). Watching Hunter Jones, Dustin Richardson and Fernando Cabrerra put gasoline on most every fire has not exactly been inspiring to watch. Theo has had to play games with the 40 man roster including DL'ing Tazawa and Aaron Bates to get some guys up with some kind of a pulse. They even had to designate my boy Chris Carter for assignment earlier this week to get Cabrerra here. Paul Byrd will be able to take the the mop-up role going forward, but these last several weeks have been brutal. A short outing by Lester, Beckett missing a start, Wakefield crippled out there, etc. has put the Sox in unwinnable situations.
All this being said, I really like the starting pitching going into the playoffs. Lester's injury might have been a blessing. He got some rest and also only threw 80 plus pitches last night. He should be refreshed. Beckett missing a start can only help him. He had pitched a bit better his last few times out after a tough 6 week stretch. Buchholz has been very solid and will be starting game 3 at Fenway. Dice K really has given them 4 pretty solid starts since coming back from the fat farm. They have made a conscious effort to not overuse Papelbon, Wagner, Bard and Okajima these last few weeks. How they got to Papelbon last night will likely be the blueprint for the playoffs. Use Bard and Wagner to get the tough 7th and 8th inning outs. Okie, Ramon Ramirez and Saito are no slouches also. This shapes up as a team strength as long as they leave Manny Delcarmen back in Hyde Park or in the bullpen.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Red Sox First Half Report Card
The Red Sox have gone into the All-Star Break with a fine 54-34 record, second best record in baseball after the Dodgers. It's been a pretty uneventful first half with really no one in the starting lineup having a career year but with everyone contributing enough to ward off long losing streaks. The team has weathered the injuries of Jed Lowrie and Mike Lowell and has put to rest for the time being that David Ortiz is washed up. Once again, the American League is proving to be the best division in baseball. The Yanks have had a decent first half and Tampa Bay is coming along. The Central has proven to be a land of mediocrity once again and the West has the surprising Rangers and Mariners playing pretty well. If I was a betting man, I see the Sox winning the East with the Yanks taking the wild card. Detroit and Anaheim should grab the other two divisional titles.
Below, I'll individually assign letter grades to our beloved ball club. I try to keep all things in perspective while doing so including salary and overall value to the team and not just looking at the numbers.
Jason Varitek B+ Doing just fine this year. He definitely has simplified his swing and approach, especially from the left side. On pace for 20 plus homers and is taking his walks. He's handled the pitching staff very well. Perhaps this grade should be higher. They'd be screwed if he didn't come back.
George Kottaras B It's hard to put up offensive numbers when you only play every 5th day. He's done a superb job catching Wakefield. Dougie who? Kevin who? Nice having a young catcher in the system. And, with more playing time, I think you'll see more power. No one put on a better show in BP than George when I was in Baltimore. I'd really like the Sox to try and get him a few extra starts to keep him sharp and give Varitek more breathers as he tends to wear down each season.
Kevin Youkilis A- Only a recent swoon at the plate keeps him from a straight A. I love the guy, love what he stands for. Grinds out every at bat, has developed excellent power, plays first base at an elite level and when asked to play third, is above average there. He might be the best baserunner in the starting 9 as well. Lowell's stint on the DL and Youk's move to third recently may have contributed to the drop in numbers. Francona should look to get Youk a bit of rest here and there to keep him fresh.
Dustin Pedroia B+ His numbers are down somewhat from last year's MVP year. But, he's been positively scorching lately and the extra base hits are starting to pile up. With Youkilis, he's an elite defender and the heart and soul of the team. And, he gives every little leaguer a reason to believe.
Mike Lowell B Before being disabled, he was putting up some solid numbers and fielding quite well. If I have any complaints about Epstein and Francona, it was their decision to play him in so many games early on. Hopefully they'll give him a day off a week once he returns. He's vital to the lineup in that his replacements have done well, but do not have Lowell's power. He may be the slowest runner in the American League these days.
Nick Green B+ Been a complete godsend. Like Alex Cora, a career backup. With Lowrie down, he developed more confidence and has more or less played fulltime the last few months. Has played very steady at shortstop and got many big hits for the Sox including a few game winners. His bat has gone in the tank the last few weeks and I think this is an indication of his career backup status. With Lowrie coming back, he'll return to a lesser role and hopefully his bat will resurrect. He gives the Sox nice flexibility going forward.
Jason Bay B- I know he was a starter in the All Star game and is leading the league in RBI's. But, he's also hitting behind some serious OBP guys and probably also leads the league in opportunities. He's been good, but his average has plummeted and the strikeouts are starting to pile up. Don't get me wrong, I like Bay and hope that they can sign him long term. He's a decent outfielder and a guy who always hustles. But, he's a sucker for righthanded sliders in the dirt.
Jacoby Ellsbury B A bit of a puzzle, not from me, but from management. I give him a lot of credit for keeping his approach steady when they took him out of the leadoff spot. He's played the hell out of CF, has been at or near .300 the whole season and is on pace for over 60 SB. He doesn't yet have the patience at the plate to have the OBP that the Sox like up top. But, I almost think he's better off right now being aggressive, bunting and giving them some production from the bottom of the order.
JD Drew B We all have to come to grips and accept him for what he is. He can be infuriating to watch at times. He takes a ton of pitches and a lot of third strikes. But, when you look at the important numbers, he's right there. He's a good baserunner, a very good right fielder and seems to elevate his game at times when they need it. He's been on the field for the most part, which was always the biggest knock on JD. He's keeping the leadoff spot warm right now for Ellsbury, possibly for the rest of the year. No one has a sweeter swing than JD. I just wish he'd use it a bit more.
David Ortiz C- Not going to delve too far into his first 2 months. He's picked it up considerably the last 6 weeks. I really think they were within a few weeks of really pulling the plug on him. And, don't be fooled by what you see now. Yes, he's doing much better and that is certainly a welcome sight. But, his days of domination are over, he still does not hit good pitching all that well and he has a ton of holes in his swing. But, he's starting to make pitchers pay for their mistakes which is something he wasn't doing. He'll probably end up with 30 HR and 100 RBI when all is said and done. Papi's probably teeing off on about the 16th hole of his career, let's hope he can finish strong.
Julio Lugo D I know his average is pretty good, but for whatever reason (injury, age), he simply cannot play anymore. He has no power, has lost much of his speed and cannot get to any balls in the field. He will be designated for assignment sooner than later.
Rocco Baldelli B Very talented guy. They have really babied him in the first half, (85 AB's). Sometimes he looks a little funny out in the field, especially when tracking balls and throwing the ball in. Don't know if this is connected to the mitochondria fatigue syndrome he's got. I'd really like to know if they are being overcautious or that he's more hampered by this thing than we know. His obvious talent level aside, it's hard to carry a guy like this on the bench that you can't count on. I look for Rocco to get more opportunities the second half.
Mark Kotsay B- Riddled by injuries. He's a great guy to have on the team, very versatile and does everything pretty well except hit for power. I'm amazed how well he plays at first considering he's a career outfielder.
Jeff Bailey, Jon Van Every, Aaron Bates et, all: Incomplete, not enough opportunities.
Pitching Staff:
Josh Beckett B+ Inconsistent as hell the first 6 weeks, absolutely dominant since. It's fun watching a power pitcher like Beckett carve up teams in Maddux like fashion. No one I'd rather have out there in a big game.
Jon Lester B- Similar season to Beckett except he was a little more erratic for a little longer. Again, like Beckett, been dominant lately. It was hard seeing him struggle, seemed like velocity and movement were there. But, when he's on, he is a pleasure to watch. With all the innings he pitched last year, the Sox will be smart in keeping an eye on his innings going forward.
Tim Wakfield A- I know his ERA is north of 4.00. I don't care. He saved the Sox when Beckett and Lester were struggling. And, take away a few bad outings where his ERA got fluffed up, he's been pretty amazing. I have not always been a Wakefield guy, but I've been converted. He seriously helps the team each year and is probably one of the most underappreciated guys we've had around here.
Brad Penny C+ Another high ERA, but he's done about what they thought he would. His stamina hasn't been great and teams 3rd time through the order have done well against him. But, for what they are paying him, he's come through. His velocity has crept up, but he lacks the offspeed stuff to keep batters off the heater for long. He could very well be dealt if they decide to take the kid gloves off of Clay Buchholz.
Dice K F Something clearly not right there. WBC killed his preparation for the season. Has shown zero command and reduced velocity. I just have a bit of a bad feeling about him. Has he used up too many of his bullets before coming over here? It's obvious he lacks the conditioning necessary to pitch every 5 days (I don't know about you, but he looks chubby to me). I hope they can get him straightened out. They have a big financial committment to him. He has been pitching professionally since age 18. I just wonder if he's got a 37 year old arm.
John Smoltz INC Has done OK since coming up. Had one shaky inning each start which has contributed to high pitch counts. They are treating him with kid gloves. I still think there will be more there than we've seen so far. I bet he wins 6 or 7 games down the stretch.
Jonathan Papelbon B+ Getting the job done per usual. But, isn't quite as dominant as he's been. Velocity looks fine, but he really hasn't trusted his secondary pitches so far. Still, an elite closer in every regard.
Hideki Okajima B+ Doing a lot of the dirty work this year. Doesn't get the publicity he deserves. He's had a few meltdowns this year, but all in all has been very consistent and as the only lefty in the pen, has been counted on heavily. He's been an absolute find for the Sox.
Ramon Ramirez B+ Started very quickly, but has slumped a bit lately. I think teams have figured him out a bit, he's got great stuff, but the velocity difference on his pitches needs to be a bit greater. If a guy is looking fastball at 94 and gets the 90 changeup, this is not enough to fool him. Overall, bullpen guys are hard to find and he's been very very good.
Manny Delcarmen B- Worldbeater one day, whipping boy the next. Great stuff, has done fairly well overall, but just when you think he's going to take things to a whole new level, he throws a stinker out there.
Justin Masterson C+ The overall numbers don't look good. He's had a few real bad outings which have driven the ERA way up. Still, a supremely talented guy. As a reliever, I think he's amped up to throw harder and I think this takes away from his strength, namely his sinker. It's almost to the point that he sees 96 on the gun and he's a fastball pitcher, but he's really not. He has not developed a third pitch yet, either. If he's not getting his slider over, he's in trouble. And, lefties get a good look at his delivery. A very durable and versatile pitcher who has started and relieved. Forget the heater, Justin, start 2 seaming and sinking. Masterson and Delcarmen could be dangled for an impact bat this offseason (especially if Bay walks).
Takashi Saito B- Hard to really know. His stuff looks good, not great. Most of the time he looks good, not great. They have babied him all the way through. He's great insurance for Papelbon, but at this point has not pitched very many impact innings for the Red Sox. I wonder if some contender will come calling for him to provide depth at the closer position. Or, maybe the Sox have played it casual with him so he'll have something left later.
Daniel Bard A- Man, is it fun watching this guy pitch. I love the easy delivery and he seems pretty relaxed out there. Nasty slider. Will be interesting if he develops a split or change to go with the heater and hook. A big part of the back end of the Sox bullpen for years to come.
Javier Lopez, Michael Bowden and Hunter Jones INC I'm being nice to Javy here, he was putrid before they shipped him to Pawtucket.
Terry Francona A- Best manager the Sox have ever had. He continues to push the right buttons and get maximum value out of his players. Only complaint is his overuse of Mike Lowell. And, here's hoping he gets 'Tek more breathers as well.
Below, I'll individually assign letter grades to our beloved ball club. I try to keep all things in perspective while doing so including salary and overall value to the team and not just looking at the numbers.
Jason Varitek B+ Doing just fine this year. He definitely has simplified his swing and approach, especially from the left side. On pace for 20 plus homers and is taking his walks. He's handled the pitching staff very well. Perhaps this grade should be higher. They'd be screwed if he didn't come back.
George Kottaras B It's hard to put up offensive numbers when you only play every 5th day. He's done a superb job catching Wakefield. Dougie who? Kevin who? Nice having a young catcher in the system. And, with more playing time, I think you'll see more power. No one put on a better show in BP than George when I was in Baltimore. I'd really like the Sox to try and get him a few extra starts to keep him sharp and give Varitek more breathers as he tends to wear down each season.
Kevin Youkilis A- Only a recent swoon at the plate keeps him from a straight A. I love the guy, love what he stands for. Grinds out every at bat, has developed excellent power, plays first base at an elite level and when asked to play third, is above average there. He might be the best baserunner in the starting 9 as well. Lowell's stint on the DL and Youk's move to third recently may have contributed to the drop in numbers. Francona should look to get Youk a bit of rest here and there to keep him fresh.
Dustin Pedroia B+ His numbers are down somewhat from last year's MVP year. But, he's been positively scorching lately and the extra base hits are starting to pile up. With Youkilis, he's an elite defender and the heart and soul of the team. And, he gives every little leaguer a reason to believe.
Mike Lowell B Before being disabled, he was putting up some solid numbers and fielding quite well. If I have any complaints about Epstein and Francona, it was their decision to play him in so many games early on. Hopefully they'll give him a day off a week once he returns. He's vital to the lineup in that his replacements have done well, but do not have Lowell's power. He may be the slowest runner in the American League these days.
Nick Green B+ Been a complete godsend. Like Alex Cora, a career backup. With Lowrie down, he developed more confidence and has more or less played fulltime the last few months. Has played very steady at shortstop and got many big hits for the Sox including a few game winners. His bat has gone in the tank the last few weeks and I think this is an indication of his career backup status. With Lowrie coming back, he'll return to a lesser role and hopefully his bat will resurrect. He gives the Sox nice flexibility going forward.
Jason Bay B- I know he was a starter in the All Star game and is leading the league in RBI's. But, he's also hitting behind some serious OBP guys and probably also leads the league in opportunities. He's been good, but his average has plummeted and the strikeouts are starting to pile up. Don't get me wrong, I like Bay and hope that they can sign him long term. He's a decent outfielder and a guy who always hustles. But, he's a sucker for righthanded sliders in the dirt.
Jacoby Ellsbury B A bit of a puzzle, not from me, but from management. I give him a lot of credit for keeping his approach steady when they took him out of the leadoff spot. He's played the hell out of CF, has been at or near .300 the whole season and is on pace for over 60 SB. He doesn't yet have the patience at the plate to have the OBP that the Sox like up top. But, I almost think he's better off right now being aggressive, bunting and giving them some production from the bottom of the order.
JD Drew B We all have to come to grips and accept him for what he is. He can be infuriating to watch at times. He takes a ton of pitches and a lot of third strikes. But, when you look at the important numbers, he's right there. He's a good baserunner, a very good right fielder and seems to elevate his game at times when they need it. He's been on the field for the most part, which was always the biggest knock on JD. He's keeping the leadoff spot warm right now for Ellsbury, possibly for the rest of the year. No one has a sweeter swing than JD. I just wish he'd use it a bit more.
David Ortiz C- Not going to delve too far into his first 2 months. He's picked it up considerably the last 6 weeks. I really think they were within a few weeks of really pulling the plug on him. And, don't be fooled by what you see now. Yes, he's doing much better and that is certainly a welcome sight. But, his days of domination are over, he still does not hit good pitching all that well and he has a ton of holes in his swing. But, he's starting to make pitchers pay for their mistakes which is something he wasn't doing. He'll probably end up with 30 HR and 100 RBI when all is said and done. Papi's probably teeing off on about the 16th hole of his career, let's hope he can finish strong.
Julio Lugo D I know his average is pretty good, but for whatever reason (injury, age), he simply cannot play anymore. He has no power, has lost much of his speed and cannot get to any balls in the field. He will be designated for assignment sooner than later.
Rocco Baldelli B Very talented guy. They have really babied him in the first half, (85 AB's). Sometimes he looks a little funny out in the field, especially when tracking balls and throwing the ball in. Don't know if this is connected to the mitochondria fatigue syndrome he's got. I'd really like to know if they are being overcautious or that he's more hampered by this thing than we know. His obvious talent level aside, it's hard to carry a guy like this on the bench that you can't count on. I look for Rocco to get more opportunities the second half.
Mark Kotsay B- Riddled by injuries. He's a great guy to have on the team, very versatile and does everything pretty well except hit for power. I'm amazed how well he plays at first considering he's a career outfielder.
Jeff Bailey, Jon Van Every, Aaron Bates et, all: Incomplete, not enough opportunities.
Pitching Staff:
Josh Beckett B+ Inconsistent as hell the first 6 weeks, absolutely dominant since. It's fun watching a power pitcher like Beckett carve up teams in Maddux like fashion. No one I'd rather have out there in a big game.
Jon Lester B- Similar season to Beckett except he was a little more erratic for a little longer. Again, like Beckett, been dominant lately. It was hard seeing him struggle, seemed like velocity and movement were there. But, when he's on, he is a pleasure to watch. With all the innings he pitched last year, the Sox will be smart in keeping an eye on his innings going forward.
Tim Wakfield A- I know his ERA is north of 4.00. I don't care. He saved the Sox when Beckett and Lester were struggling. And, take away a few bad outings where his ERA got fluffed up, he's been pretty amazing. I have not always been a Wakefield guy, but I've been converted. He seriously helps the team each year and is probably one of the most underappreciated guys we've had around here.
Brad Penny C+ Another high ERA, but he's done about what they thought he would. His stamina hasn't been great and teams 3rd time through the order have done well against him. But, for what they are paying him, he's come through. His velocity has crept up, but he lacks the offspeed stuff to keep batters off the heater for long. He could very well be dealt if they decide to take the kid gloves off of Clay Buchholz.
Dice K F Something clearly not right there. WBC killed his preparation for the season. Has shown zero command and reduced velocity. I just have a bit of a bad feeling about him. Has he used up too many of his bullets before coming over here? It's obvious he lacks the conditioning necessary to pitch every 5 days (I don't know about you, but he looks chubby to me). I hope they can get him straightened out. They have a big financial committment to him. He has been pitching professionally since age 18. I just wonder if he's got a 37 year old arm.
John Smoltz INC Has done OK since coming up. Had one shaky inning each start which has contributed to high pitch counts. They are treating him with kid gloves. I still think there will be more there than we've seen so far. I bet he wins 6 or 7 games down the stretch.
Jonathan Papelbon B+ Getting the job done per usual. But, isn't quite as dominant as he's been. Velocity looks fine, but he really hasn't trusted his secondary pitches so far. Still, an elite closer in every regard.
Hideki Okajima B+ Doing a lot of the dirty work this year. Doesn't get the publicity he deserves. He's had a few meltdowns this year, but all in all has been very consistent and as the only lefty in the pen, has been counted on heavily. He's been an absolute find for the Sox.
Ramon Ramirez B+ Started very quickly, but has slumped a bit lately. I think teams have figured him out a bit, he's got great stuff, but the velocity difference on his pitches needs to be a bit greater. If a guy is looking fastball at 94 and gets the 90 changeup, this is not enough to fool him. Overall, bullpen guys are hard to find and he's been very very good.
Manny Delcarmen B- Worldbeater one day, whipping boy the next. Great stuff, has done fairly well overall, but just when you think he's going to take things to a whole new level, he throws a stinker out there.
Justin Masterson C+ The overall numbers don't look good. He's had a few real bad outings which have driven the ERA way up. Still, a supremely talented guy. As a reliever, I think he's amped up to throw harder and I think this takes away from his strength, namely his sinker. It's almost to the point that he sees 96 on the gun and he's a fastball pitcher, but he's really not. He has not developed a third pitch yet, either. If he's not getting his slider over, he's in trouble. And, lefties get a good look at his delivery. A very durable and versatile pitcher who has started and relieved. Forget the heater, Justin, start 2 seaming and sinking. Masterson and Delcarmen could be dangled for an impact bat this offseason (especially if Bay walks).
Takashi Saito B- Hard to really know. His stuff looks good, not great. Most of the time he looks good, not great. They have babied him all the way through. He's great insurance for Papelbon, but at this point has not pitched very many impact innings for the Red Sox. I wonder if some contender will come calling for him to provide depth at the closer position. Or, maybe the Sox have played it casual with him so he'll have something left later.
Daniel Bard A- Man, is it fun watching this guy pitch. I love the easy delivery and he seems pretty relaxed out there. Nasty slider. Will be interesting if he develops a split or change to go with the heater and hook. A big part of the back end of the Sox bullpen for years to come.
Javier Lopez, Michael Bowden and Hunter Jones INC I'm being nice to Javy here, he was putrid before they shipped him to Pawtucket.
Terry Francona A- Best manager the Sox have ever had. He continues to push the right buttons and get maximum value out of his players. Only complaint is his overuse of Mike Lowell. And, here's hoping he gets 'Tek more breathers as well.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
A few odds and ends:
Brad Penny is surprising me. I really didn't expect that much out of him. I figured between him and John Smoltz, maybe you get lucky with one, maybe not. But, I have to say he's throwing the hell out of the ball. He looks motivated and seems to get a bit stronger each time out. And, he's pitching tough with runners in scoring position. The velocity is coming back, first few starts he was at 89-90, now the heater is 95 consistently. Certainly, I think there is something to the shoulder program that many of the Sox pitchers are on. Now, if they can only get Dice K on it.
Speaking of Dice K, this was the perfect way to handle the situation. Send him somewhere (preferably not too close to McDonalds) where he can get his arm, body and mind in shape. They do not need him right now. I figure we won't see him at all until August 1 or beyond. By then, we'll know where we are with Smoltz and Clay Buchholz is waiting in the wings if anyone falters. I really think it's put up or shut up time for Matsuzaka. There's a lot of mileage on that arm. He is a tremendously gifted pitcher, but I'm not sure he ever really bought into the American way and better yet, the Red Sox way. The Sox are lucky in that their strength and conditioning team and John Farrell are top notch. There is more to pitching than just throwing tons of pitches each day. Let Dice take all the time he needs to get everything going.
It has been impressive to see the Sox winning consistently with Youkilis, Bay, Pedroia and Varitek all struggling at the plate. David Ortiz has picked it up and Ellsbury and Green have contributed a ton. It's only a matter of days when Julio Lugo is handed his pink slip. Green has earned his spot and is making Sox fans forget about Alex Cora.
Finally, it appears that Manny Ramirez will take the next 10 days or so to get back in playing shape by appearing in Triple A games. I understand that there's no rule against this, but there should be. It's a disgrace that he gets to play minor league ball while suspended from Major League ball. I understand that Albuquerque will prosper from this at the box office, but it's still a farce. Manny should not be allowed on a pro field until his suspension is up, then it's up to him and the team on how they get the rust off.
Speaking of Dice K, this was the perfect way to handle the situation. Send him somewhere (preferably not too close to McDonalds) where he can get his arm, body and mind in shape. They do not need him right now. I figure we won't see him at all until August 1 or beyond. By then, we'll know where we are with Smoltz and Clay Buchholz is waiting in the wings if anyone falters. I really think it's put up or shut up time for Matsuzaka. There's a lot of mileage on that arm. He is a tremendously gifted pitcher, but I'm not sure he ever really bought into the American way and better yet, the Red Sox way. The Sox are lucky in that their strength and conditioning team and John Farrell are top notch. There is more to pitching than just throwing tons of pitches each day. Let Dice take all the time he needs to get everything going.
It has been impressive to see the Sox winning consistently with Youkilis, Bay, Pedroia and Varitek all struggling at the plate. David Ortiz has picked it up and Ellsbury and Green have contributed a ton. It's only a matter of days when Julio Lugo is handed his pink slip. Green has earned his spot and is making Sox fans forget about Alex Cora.
Finally, it appears that Manny Ramirez will take the next 10 days or so to get back in playing shape by appearing in Triple A games. I understand that there's no rule against this, but there should be. It's a disgrace that he gets to play minor league ball while suspended from Major League ball. I understand that Albuquerque will prosper from this at the box office, but it's still a farce. Manny should not be allowed on a pro field until his suspension is up, then it's up to him and the team on how they get the rust off.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Dice K
The Red Sox are being coy about their plans for the rotation going forward. John Smoltz has made 5 rehab starts and is stretched out reasonably enough so as to not be a huge burden on the Sox's bullpen. While it's possible they have Smoltz make one more rehab start at Pawtucket, sooner or later they are going to have to make a decision on the rotation and also the roster.
Lester and Beckett (other than yesterday) have been pitching well and it's probably too early to work in some sort of break for them. Wakefield certainly deserves to keep pitching as does Brad Penny. Though I think they could definitely move Penny closer to the deadline, I don't believe they'll do it right now. They need to play the cat and mouse game a bit longer. A tweaked groin, a blister or a strained oblique is what the Sox are looking for right now where the decision is made for them.
Assuming none of this takes place, this leaves Dice K as worthy of a few hundred words of discussion. First off, the fact that he was named MVP of the World Baseball Classic was a joke. I watched him pitch twice and he resembled the DiceK we've been seeing here. A lot of scrambling, middling velocity and high pitch counts. He was dominant at the WBC in '06, but not this time. I don't think he had his legs under him at any point this year.
Take a look at the guy. I see a puffy looking dude. He almost looks like one of those kids a year or so before puberty. Chubby face and features. He's such a legend back home in Japan. I just have to wonder about his conditioning. He looks 15 pounds heavier than last year. He probably slacked off during the offseason, accelerated his program for the WBC too quickly and simply does not have the foundation to build off of right now. He's already been on the DL for a "fatiqued" shoulder. His velocity has ticked up a bit since coming back, but is still less than what we are accustomed to. He still works slowly and looks almost lethargic out there.
Assuming nothing happens with a tweak or a pitcher isn't given a break or traded, the best move for the Sox would be to send Dice K to Florida for 2-3 weeks and get him back to basics. Conditioning, longtossing and plenty of shoulder work should be incorporated. It would be a shame to see the Sox trade Penny right now or invent an injury to Wakefield or something along those lines. Disabling DiceK would also save the likely roster spot of Daniel Bard or even Justin Masterson who still have options.
Lester and Beckett (other than yesterday) have been pitching well and it's probably too early to work in some sort of break for them. Wakefield certainly deserves to keep pitching as does Brad Penny. Though I think they could definitely move Penny closer to the deadline, I don't believe they'll do it right now. They need to play the cat and mouse game a bit longer. A tweaked groin, a blister or a strained oblique is what the Sox are looking for right now where the decision is made for them.
Assuming none of this takes place, this leaves Dice K as worthy of a few hundred words of discussion. First off, the fact that he was named MVP of the World Baseball Classic was a joke. I watched him pitch twice and he resembled the DiceK we've been seeing here. A lot of scrambling, middling velocity and high pitch counts. He was dominant at the WBC in '06, but not this time. I don't think he had his legs under him at any point this year.
Take a look at the guy. I see a puffy looking dude. He almost looks like one of those kids a year or so before puberty. Chubby face and features. He's such a legend back home in Japan. I just have to wonder about his conditioning. He looks 15 pounds heavier than last year. He probably slacked off during the offseason, accelerated his program for the WBC too quickly and simply does not have the foundation to build off of right now. He's already been on the DL for a "fatiqued" shoulder. His velocity has ticked up a bit since coming back, but is still less than what we are accustomed to. He still works slowly and looks almost lethargic out there.
Assuming nothing happens with a tweak or a pitcher isn't given a break or traded, the best move for the Sox would be to send Dice K to Florida for 2-3 weeks and get him back to basics. Conditioning, longtossing and plenty of shoulder work should be incorporated. It would be a shame to see the Sox trade Penny right now or invent an injury to Wakefield or something along those lines. Disabling DiceK would also save the likely roster spot of Daniel Bard or even Justin Masterson who still have options.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Radar Gun at Fenway:
Is it just me or have they tweaked this thing lately? My theory is that since they've gotten Daniel Bard, they've been playing some games out there. Bard throws hard, that's for sure. But, I'm seeing Ramon Ramirez hit 95 all of a sudden. I've seen 97-98 from Jon Lester. And, I'm seeing the same from Brad Penny. I think they must have rehired the people in charge of the gun in the 1999 All-Star game when Pedro Martinez was hitting 98-99.
Musings on a Friday:
Nice series by the Sox sweeping the Yanks. Francona, Farrell and company always seem to be one step ahead of Joe Girardi and the Yankees. Last night's game was a game they should have lost, but they found a way and head into this weekend's series against the Phillies in good shape.
Kevin Youkilis is turning into a superstar in front of our eyes. He needs to stay in that 3rd spot the rest of the year. He does everything very well. Though not regarded as a speedster, he might be one of the top Red Sox base runners. He's hitting for more power, taking his walks when they don't pitch to him and is playing great at first base.
Jason Bay is leveling off a bit. He's down now under .280, but he's still taking his walks. He is incredibly vulnerable to low and outside sliders. They are pitching him there more and the strikeouts are starting to pile up a bit. Here's hoping he makes an adjustment to either lay off these pitches or start hitting the ball to right a little bit.
Speaking of adjustments, JD Drew is locked in right now. He's been hitting the left field wall on a regular basis lately. Though I think their best alignment for the long haul is having Ellsbury leadoff followed by Pedrioa, Drew is well suited to hit 2nd. He takes a lot of pitches, has some power and runs very well. Pedrioa is wasted a bit in the leadoff spot in Francona's current lineup. Ellsbury just hasn't walked enough to get his OBP up in that .360 range which is what they have to have up there.
I give Johnny Damon a lot of credit. He's a fine player and really hasn't slipped much. He'll garner a nice contract from someone in the offseason. I can see the Yanks going hard after Jason Bay if he doesn't sign with Boston. Bay's value appears to have eclipsed Matt Holiday's at this point.
As soon as Jed Lowrie is ready and he proves he's healthy, I think Julio Lugo will be designated for assignment. I'm amazed at what Nick Green has been able to do.
It puzzles me to think about what the Sox will do when John Smoltz is ready next week. I just cannot see them trading Brad Penny now, at least not until they are sure Smoltz will be able to handle the load. Do they put Dice K back on the DL to build up arm strength? Do they give Beckett or Lester a blow? Do they invent some sort of 6 man rotation where Beckett and Lester stay in turn, and the other 4 guys get additional rest? Yes, these things always have a way of working themselves out, but this one is going down to the wire.
Justin Masterson hasn't pitched much. He's kind of the odd guy out right now. And, he doesn't slot in real well with the Phillies this weekend. The Phillies are very lefty based and have a lot of switch hitters who tend to have pretty good success against Masterson.
Kevin Youkilis is turning into a superstar in front of our eyes. He needs to stay in that 3rd spot the rest of the year. He does everything very well. Though not regarded as a speedster, he might be one of the top Red Sox base runners. He's hitting for more power, taking his walks when they don't pitch to him and is playing great at first base.
Jason Bay is leveling off a bit. He's down now under .280, but he's still taking his walks. He is incredibly vulnerable to low and outside sliders. They are pitching him there more and the strikeouts are starting to pile up a bit. Here's hoping he makes an adjustment to either lay off these pitches or start hitting the ball to right a little bit.
Speaking of adjustments, JD Drew is locked in right now. He's been hitting the left field wall on a regular basis lately. Though I think their best alignment for the long haul is having Ellsbury leadoff followed by Pedrioa, Drew is well suited to hit 2nd. He takes a lot of pitches, has some power and runs very well. Pedrioa is wasted a bit in the leadoff spot in Francona's current lineup. Ellsbury just hasn't walked enough to get his OBP up in that .360 range which is what they have to have up there.
I give Johnny Damon a lot of credit. He's a fine player and really hasn't slipped much. He'll garner a nice contract from someone in the offseason. I can see the Yanks going hard after Jason Bay if he doesn't sign with Boston. Bay's value appears to have eclipsed Matt Holiday's at this point.
As soon as Jed Lowrie is ready and he proves he's healthy, I think Julio Lugo will be designated for assignment. I'm amazed at what Nick Green has been able to do.
It puzzles me to think about what the Sox will do when John Smoltz is ready next week. I just cannot see them trading Brad Penny now, at least not until they are sure Smoltz will be able to handle the load. Do they put Dice K back on the DL to build up arm strength? Do they give Beckett or Lester a blow? Do they invent some sort of 6 man rotation where Beckett and Lester stay in turn, and the other 4 guys get additional rest? Yes, these things always have a way of working themselves out, but this one is going down to the wire.
Justin Masterson hasn't pitched much. He's kind of the odd guy out right now. And, he doesn't slot in real well with the Phillies this weekend. The Phillies are very lefty based and have a lot of switch hitters who tend to have pretty good success against Masterson.
Monday, June 1, 2009
Anyone else excited about John Smoltz?
John Smoltz had another successful rehab outing yesterday at Class A Greenville. He pitched 5 innings giving up only one run. He struck out 6 without walking anyone and threw 73 pitches. The plan from here is for him to have 2 more rehab starts for Pawtucket and if all goes well, he'll be with the Sox probably by the middle of the month.I am excited to see him pitch. Kid and wife duties may interfere, but I intend on getting somewhere near Fenway the night he debuts for the Sox. If I can't get in the ballpark, I'll pull up a stool at Game On or Boston Beer Works and watch the show. I have no idea whose spot he'll take. Maybe Dice K goes back on the DL, maybe they invent a boo boo for Beckett or Lester. Maybe Wake takes a breather or they trade Brad Penny. Doesn't matter to me.
In quickly persuing the Red Sox schedule, if all goes to plan, he would likely make his first start at home against the Yankees around June 10th or so. The old yard will be hopping that night. And, the very next weekend, the Sox host the Atlanta Braves, Smoltz old team which he pitched 21 years for. Wouldn't that be appropriate and I wouldn't doubt that Smoltz is pushing for the opportunity to pitch against an organization that didn't show him much love in the offseason. Can you tell that I'm excited?
Friday, May 29, 2009
What is wrong with Jon Lester?
Is anyone out in Red Sox nation getting a bit worried about Jon Lester? I think I might be. He's 3-5 with a 6.07 ERA right now. He's given up 74 hits in 59 innings including 11 home runs. Is this the same guy that was the staff ace in the postseason last year? 
I have a few theories that I'll share. Let's talk about the one most people are pointing at, namely the big increase in innings last year and the deep postseason run where every pitch is a nail biter. There is probably something to this. Look at Beckett last year after his phenomenal 2007 post season performance. He came in to camp out of shape and unprepared and immediately hurt his back. He never was the same last year.
Francona and Farrell are always saying how big of a kid Lester is and how he can handle the workload. His innings definitely went up by a longshot last year, many young pitchers have had some problems the next year after big inning increases. See Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, Fausto Carmona, etc. Certainly this could be part of it especially when you factor in those pressure packed postseason innings.
Lester's velocity has stayed consistent, he's usually in the low to mid 90's like he was last year. So seemingly his arm is sound. But, is he humping it up for the radar gun sacrificing movement and location? It appears that way at least so far.
Think of all the good lefties in baseball the last several years. Glavine, Buehrle, Cliff Lee, Hamels, Pettitte, Sabathia. With the exception of Sabathia, Lester throws harder than all of them. However, he lacks something that most lefties have, a quality changeup. Don't get me wrong, I love his cutter that bores down and in on the righties. And, certainly I love his 4 seam 95 MPH heat. But, seemingly it is all he's throwing these days. He's gotten away from the good breaking ball he throws, especially to righties and maybe throws his change 5 times a game. This is not enough. Righties are laying off that cutter and teeing off on the straight heat. When you've got the type of fastball that he has, there has to be another pitch that looks like the heater, but isn't. Most lefties use that screwball like change to run away from righties and get those ground balls. I'd like to see Lester work on this.
I have a few theories that I'll share. Let's talk about the one most people are pointing at, namely the big increase in innings last year and the deep postseason run where every pitch is a nail biter. There is probably something to this. Look at Beckett last year after his phenomenal 2007 post season performance. He came in to camp out of shape and unprepared and immediately hurt his back. He never was the same last year.
Francona and Farrell are always saying how big of a kid Lester is and how he can handle the workload. His innings definitely went up by a longshot last year, many young pitchers have had some problems the next year after big inning increases. See Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, Fausto Carmona, etc. Certainly this could be part of it especially when you factor in those pressure packed postseason innings.
Lester's velocity has stayed consistent, he's usually in the low to mid 90's like he was last year. So seemingly his arm is sound. But, is he humping it up for the radar gun sacrificing movement and location? It appears that way at least so far.
Think of all the good lefties in baseball the last several years. Glavine, Buehrle, Cliff Lee, Hamels, Pettitte, Sabathia. With the exception of Sabathia, Lester throws harder than all of them. However, he lacks something that most lefties have, a quality changeup. Don't get me wrong, I love his cutter that bores down and in on the righties. And, certainly I love his 4 seam 95 MPH heat. But, seemingly it is all he's throwing these days. He's gotten away from the good breaking ball he throws, especially to righties and maybe throws his change 5 times a game. This is not enough. Righties are laying off that cutter and teeing off on the straight heat. When you've got the type of fastball that he has, there has to be another pitch that looks like the heater, but isn't. Most lefties use that screwball like change to run away from righties and get those ground balls. I'd like to see Lester work on this.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Quick Red Sox Positional Synopsis:
The Red Sox have had their ups and downs so far this year, but basically have been pretty consistent. I'm going to take a quick look at the team and go position by position and examine the current state of affairs.
Catcher: Jason Varitek has been fine this year. He's cut down on his strikeouts and though he's not hitting for a huge average, he's on pace for over 20 home runs. I thought he hit in buzzard luck for awhile earlier this year. I'll certainly take what the captain has provided. George Kottaras has made us forget about Kevin Cash. He's done a fine job with Wakefield who happens to be their best starter so far. George will hit a bit better as he gets more experienced, too. I hear Doug Mirabelli is selling Real Estate, good for him. That whole charade got old, thankfully Theo has moved on.
First Base: I love Kevin Youkilis, what's not to love really other than his increasing number of nagging injuries. Maybe he needs to tone it down a bit so he's not continually getting dinged up. He's a clutch hitter, always gives a good at bats, fields his position tremendously and has developed excellent power. Jeff Bailey is a fine AAA player who's a nice guy but won't ever be a consistent contributor north of I95. Mark Kotsay's return will help here.
Second Base: After a bit of a slow start, Pedroia has been great. I think that the 17 homers last year were a tease, we should not expect that. But, what we should expect is a .320 average, aggressive baserunning and great defense. Great ballplayer.
Third Base: I give Mike Lowell a ton of credit for coming back and playing every day. His fielding has been pretty good and so has his hitting. He has killed them on the bases several times by hitting in doubleplays and simply not being able to take the extra base. I hope he's able to get a little more flexibility and pain relief out of that hip because he truly looks 60 years old when he runs. And, he doesn't go all out running unless he has to. When Youk slides over, he does a nice job at third.
Shortstop: Lugo might be on his way to being released. He has no plus skills anymore. He came in as a shortstop who supposedly had an above average bat, speed and range. He's below average everywhere now. He is tentative in the field and on the bases, has no power and is allergic to RBI's. Nick Green has done a fine job when he's played, but the more Nick plays, the more you realize that he's a nice stopgap, but not an everyday shortstop. His errors are on the increase. Here's hoping Jed Lowrie can come back healthy. This is one area where the Sox may have to make a move sooner than later. I can't believe that they'll stick with Lugo on that roster much longer.
Left Field: Jason Bay has been great. I love the guy. Hits for power, runs the bases very well and always seems to throw to the right base. Too bad they couldn't get him extended in Spring Training, the Yanks will be coming after him in the offseason.
Center Field: Ellsbury is maturing before our eyes. No doubt he's a .300 hitter with his speed. He's made some adjustments at the plate, I don't think he'll ever be more than a 10 home run guy, though he does have some power. Going forward, I'd like to see a little more patience out of him so he can get that OBP up closer to .400. He is an excellent center fielder.
Right Field: JD Drew has been solid and as long as he stays on the field, he will produce. It drives me mad when in the course of his 4 at bats, he might only take 2 or 3 swings. But, in year 3 of his contract, he is what he is. I'll take it. He's a very good fielder, a good baserunner and can go on a tear at any time. Even when he's not hitting, he still gets on base.
Designated Hitter: It's still a bit too early to count him out, but David Ortiz looks done. I won't go into detail why, but it simply looks bad for him. They can stop gap things with Carter, Kotsay, Baldelli and Bailey, but if he is still where he is now in 6 weeks, they will need to do something at the All Star Break. Think of an Aubrey Huff type on the last year of his contract. Lars Anderson is not ready yet.
Bench: Baldelli seems to be hurt, I hope he gets over this. They could use his versatility going forward. They need Kotsay back, he's a huge upgrade over Bailey/Chris Carter. Nick Green has been excellent. Kottaras has been fine also.
Starting Pitching: I'm amazed at where they are with the inconsistencies they've had here. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have underachieved all season though both had good last outings. They both seem healthy and should both be in the upper echelon of starters in the league. Lester seems to be overthrowing his fastball and has gotten away a bit from that nasty cut fastball that runs in on righties. Beckett is still throwing a ton of fastballs and though his velocity is up from the end of last year, it's a still a tick down from 2007. It is a straight fastball and he throws a lot of them. They have gotten hit. His command has not been there yet. Brad Penny has gotten better lately, but really to me isn't much more that keeping the position warm for John Smoltz. Wakefield has saved the Sox from big losing streaks and never ceases to amaze. He has all but abandoned the overhand curve and now is changing speeds on his knuckler and still spotting the occasional fastball. DiceK is just coming back and though his first outing back from the DL was shaky, his velocity was back and he had nice finish on his pitches. Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden are tearing up Pawtucket and will get a look or two later this year. One might be needed in any potential deal for a shortstop or DH. Smoltz is coming back slowly and they will not rush him. I cannot wait to see him out there. This depth allows the Sox to give Beckett and Lester some time off at some point this summer and should enable everyone to be fresh down the stretch.
Bullpen: Overall, it has been fantasic. Okajima and Delcarmen have been very steady. Ramon Ramirez has developed into their best reliever. He attacks hitters and seems to reach back for more when he needs it. They are babying Saito and are making sure he will be healthy throughout. Papelbon has been shaky, they are sitting on his fastball. This has happened before and he has made adjustments. He simply does not have that consistent split that he's had in the past. He'll be fine, though it might be nice for him to knock someone down or experiment with something so a different look is given the hitters. They are too comfortable digging in right now. Daniel Bard might be here to stay, though he looks slightly freaked out when guys pull his 98 MPH heater. He needs to develop his offspeed pitches more.
Overall, things look good. Smoltz is coming back, Kostay will be a nice addition and they have Buchholz and Bowden waiting in the wings. I wouldn't be surprised to see a major deal for a shortstop or hitter. The division is starting to shake out now, with Toronto coming back to earth and the Yanks and Rays starting to play better.
Catcher: Jason Varitek has been fine this year. He's cut down on his strikeouts and though he's not hitting for a huge average, he's on pace for over 20 home runs. I thought he hit in buzzard luck for awhile earlier this year. I'll certainly take what the captain has provided. George Kottaras has made us forget about Kevin Cash. He's done a fine job with Wakefield who happens to be their best starter so far. George will hit a bit better as he gets more experienced, too. I hear Doug Mirabelli is selling Real Estate, good for him. That whole charade got old, thankfully Theo has moved on.
First Base: I love Kevin Youkilis, what's not to love really other than his increasing number of nagging injuries. Maybe he needs to tone it down a bit so he's not continually getting dinged up. He's a clutch hitter, always gives a good at bats, fields his position tremendously and has developed excellent power. Jeff Bailey is a fine AAA player who's a nice guy but won't ever be a consistent contributor north of I95. Mark Kotsay's return will help here.
Second Base: After a bit of a slow start, Pedroia has been great. I think that the 17 homers last year were a tease, we should not expect that. But, what we should expect is a .320 average, aggressive baserunning and great defense. Great ballplayer.
Third Base: I give Mike Lowell a ton of credit for coming back and playing every day. His fielding has been pretty good and so has his hitting. He has killed them on the bases several times by hitting in doubleplays and simply not being able to take the extra base. I hope he's able to get a little more flexibility and pain relief out of that hip because he truly looks 60 years old when he runs. And, he doesn't go all out running unless he has to. When Youk slides over, he does a nice job at third.
Shortstop: Lugo might be on his way to being released. He has no plus skills anymore. He came in as a shortstop who supposedly had an above average bat, speed and range. He's below average everywhere now. He is tentative in the field and on the bases, has no power and is allergic to RBI's. Nick Green has done a fine job when he's played, but the more Nick plays, the more you realize that he's a nice stopgap, but not an everyday shortstop. His errors are on the increase. Here's hoping Jed Lowrie can come back healthy. This is one area where the Sox may have to make a move sooner than later. I can't believe that they'll stick with Lugo on that roster much longer.
Left Field: Jason Bay has been great. I love the guy. Hits for power, runs the bases very well and always seems to throw to the right base. Too bad they couldn't get him extended in Spring Training, the Yanks will be coming after him in the offseason.
Center Field: Ellsbury is maturing before our eyes. No doubt he's a .300 hitter with his speed. He's made some adjustments at the plate, I don't think he'll ever be more than a 10 home run guy, though he does have some power. Going forward, I'd like to see a little more patience out of him so he can get that OBP up closer to .400. He is an excellent center fielder.
Right Field: JD Drew has been solid and as long as he stays on the field, he will produce. It drives me mad when in the course of his 4 at bats, he might only take 2 or 3 swings. But, in year 3 of his contract, he is what he is. I'll take it. He's a very good fielder, a good baserunner and can go on a tear at any time. Even when he's not hitting, he still gets on base.
Designated Hitter: It's still a bit too early to count him out, but David Ortiz looks done. I won't go into detail why, but it simply looks bad for him. They can stop gap things with Carter, Kotsay, Baldelli and Bailey, but if he is still where he is now in 6 weeks, they will need to do something at the All Star Break. Think of an Aubrey Huff type on the last year of his contract. Lars Anderson is not ready yet.
Bench: Baldelli seems to be hurt, I hope he gets over this. They could use his versatility going forward. They need Kotsay back, he's a huge upgrade over Bailey/Chris Carter. Nick Green has been excellent. Kottaras has been fine also.
Starting Pitching: I'm amazed at where they are with the inconsistencies they've had here. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have underachieved all season though both had good last outings. They both seem healthy and should both be in the upper echelon of starters in the league. Lester seems to be overthrowing his fastball and has gotten away a bit from that nasty cut fastball that runs in on righties. Beckett is still throwing a ton of fastballs and though his velocity is up from the end of last year, it's a still a tick down from 2007. It is a straight fastball and he throws a lot of them. They have gotten hit. His command has not been there yet. Brad Penny has gotten better lately, but really to me isn't much more that keeping the position warm for John Smoltz. Wakefield has saved the Sox from big losing streaks and never ceases to amaze. He has all but abandoned the overhand curve and now is changing speeds on his knuckler and still spotting the occasional fastball. DiceK is just coming back and though his first outing back from the DL was shaky, his velocity was back and he had nice finish on his pitches. Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden are tearing up Pawtucket and will get a look or two later this year. One might be needed in any potential deal for a shortstop or DH. Smoltz is coming back slowly and they will not rush him. I cannot wait to see him out there. This depth allows the Sox to give Beckett and Lester some time off at some point this summer and should enable everyone to be fresh down the stretch.
Bullpen: Overall, it has been fantasic. Okajima and Delcarmen have been very steady. Ramon Ramirez has developed into their best reliever. He attacks hitters and seems to reach back for more when he needs it. They are babying Saito and are making sure he will be healthy throughout. Papelbon has been shaky, they are sitting on his fastball. This has happened before and he has made adjustments. He simply does not have that consistent split that he's had in the past. He'll be fine, though it might be nice for him to knock someone down or experiment with something so a different look is given the hitters. They are too comfortable digging in right now. Daniel Bard might be here to stay, though he looks slightly freaked out when guys pull his 98 MPH heater. He needs to develop his offspeed pitches more.
Overall, things look good. Smoltz is coming back, Kostay will be a nice addition and they have Buchholz and Bowden waiting in the wings. I wouldn't be surprised to see a major deal for a shortstop or hitter. The division is starting to shake out now, with Toronto coming back to earth and the Yanks and Rays starting to play better.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
2009 MSBL Braves Outlook:
The Metrowest Adult Baseball League (MABL) was founded in 1994 and is starting its 16th season. The league which started with four teams in its inaugural season has steadily grown to today’s current twelve team format. It is an over thirty, wooden bat league and has several ex-minor league athletes and many top college players of yesteryear. The competition is very solid. The league plays the majority of games on Sunday Mornings and the season lasts from mid April right into September and the playoffs. Most teams are headquartered in the greater Route 495/Mass Pike area stretching north to Maynard, south to Milford, east to Wayland and west to Westboro.
The 2009 Millis Braves look to bounce back after 2 lackluster and mediocre seasons and hope to return to their customary power teams of 2000-2006. With several key veterans returning mixed in with a few offseason acquisitions, the Braves look to move up in the National League standings this summer.
The Braves are led on and off the field by manager Rich Moran. This is the 13th year of the Braves and Moran is back at the helm for the 13th time. Being in charge of a team in this league is a thankless task, yet Moran does it well. Over the years, Moran has had his role change on the team due to various team needs. A once team ace on the hill, Moran provides depth on the hill this year and returns to his role as #1 catcher.
Leading the Braves this year are a series of team veterans. CF Dale Bickford is back patrolling the outfield and leading off for the Braves. Bickford might be the fastest player in the league and gets on base with the best of them. SS Mike Pietila, probably the best all around Brave, is back to bat behind Bickford, spray linedrives all over the yard and gobble up all the grounders hit his way. Pietila is a heady, smart player. TJ May is back with his intense plate presence, no one works a pitcher like TJ. May plays all over the field including catcher, infield and outfield. John Fantasia, the team’s best RBI man is back playing first base and outfield. Johnny Fan is a great situational hitter and does a great job making sure the table setters don’t get stranded.
Raul Matos and Mike Londergan are back this year to help the Braves. Both outfielders provide excellent flexibility in the outfield and timely hitting at the dish. This is Londergan’s 10th year as a Brave and Matos’ 8th. Both will be counted on heavily this year. Second year man Justin Peterson is back this year. Mainly an outfielder who can also play some 3rd base, Peterson has made great strides in the offseason with his swing and has been a force so far this season. Justin’s brother Toby has joined the Braves this year and gives the Bravos excellent diversity around the diamond and a nice bat!
Flexibility was a key in the offseason for the Braves and they found plenty of it with the offseason acquisitions of Jamie Nix, Mike Connolly and Kevin Specter. Nix was one of the top pitchers in the league for several years, slots right into the cleanup role for the Braves with his power and helps on the left side of the infield and outfield. Nix will pitch many big innings for the Braves this year with his power stuff. Connolly can fly and is an excellent line drive hitter. He is truly a 9 position guy, above average anywhere you put him. He is a key addition for the Braves. Specter is an excellent infielder with a great arm and a smart, disciplined plate approach who will fill key roles all season.
Big Steve Purdy is back this season after a 4 year hiatus. The once Braves closer is back and better than ever. He struck out the side in his first appearance this year. Purdy also brings another power bat to the middle of the order and provides depth at first base. The Braves also return another original Brave from the inaugural 1997 season. Pitcher and outfielder Jim Callaghan is back for a 13th season. A team ace for many years, Callaghan finally worked his way back to pitching last year after a 3 year struggle with shoulder problems and he won 7 games for the Braves. His arm seems sound again this year and he brings a solid bat to the 3 hole in the order with his foul line to foul line slashing. Nix, Callaghan, Purdy and Moran will likely do most of the pitching this year, the Braves have not had this kind of depth on the hill for a long time.
The Braves will hope to get some help during the season from 3 part-time guys. MSBL Hall of Famer Marc Sanfacon will be back to help anchor the infield and provide a steady presence all around. 10 year veteran Jimmy McLaughlin hopes to come back from injury and sickness to provide his signature power bat. And, former team MVP Christo Lagos will be back to lend his infectious awesome attitude and unbelievable skills all over the field.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Loose Scraps on a Monday:
As an unabashed Red Sox suckup, I am starting this blog to officially nominate myself to start the Chris Carter fan club. As stated earlier in this blog, I love Mark Kotsay and what he brings (more than Darren Bragg, stop chuckling). However, he's hurt and this spot is open. Thankfully, Brad Wilkerson's 50% strikeout rate looks like it will run him out of town. Jeff Bailey is a good soldier and has done well in his Red Sox stints. They could do much worse. However, you simply cannot ignore what Chris Carter has done this spring.
Carter hit his 6th homer yesterday. He's not simply hitting them against AA pitching, either. I've been reading that he's super intense and is always grabbing coaches to hit him balls at first and in the outfield on back fields after practice. Obviously the guy wants to get better and he is. The Sox have little organizational power and the fact that he's a lefty swinger makes him a perfect complement to Rocco Baldelli. I want to see them hitting for Varitek this year. Lowell will need a day or two off a week initially. I love Carter for this role.
One guy I feel for right now is Clay Buchholz. His ERA is so low this spring that you can't even see it. At this point, it looks pretty much inevitable that he's heading back to Pawtucket. I love the aggressiveness the Sox showed in grabbing Brad Penny and John Smoltz. I admire the mutual admiration that Sox management and Tim Wakefield have. But, it's a shame that a 24 year old pitcher with lights out stuff has to go down I 95. I understand it, but that doesn't mean I have to like it. Clay had a reputation as a bit of a wild child when he came here and I think his no hitter in '07 likely went to his head. He was unprepared physically and mentally last year. He pitched scared. Something has clicked with him and he looks ready to move forward. People may forget how highly touted he was a year or two back. Think David Price, think Joba Chamberlain. He was on everyone's top prospect list.
Moving forward, you've got the big 3 of Beckett, Lester and Dice-K. Wakefield slots 4th with Penny behind him with Buchholz ready to step in. I think it's inevitable this year that the Sox and Wakefield need to have "the conversation". I love Wake, love what's he's done and what he stands for. I'd even quietly extend him for next year. But, at some point this year, they need to temporarily put him somewhere where he won't be in the way. I think we can all agree that he's pitched his last postseason game for the Sox already. If Penny comes through and Smoltz comes back strong and everyone is reasonably healthy, I think Wake needs to disappear for awhile. Buchholz figures in here as well. You know that no one will get more than 30 starts, they'll build in rest and breaks, etc. But, at some point, you got to put your talented guys out there.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Is Joe Girardi getting it?
I have no idea why I'm about to write a few hundred words about the hated Yankees. Perhaps it was the sugar in the bowl of Golden Grahams I just had. Anyway, back from work tonight and I had the great pleasure of printing the New York Times tonight. Editors note: I'm a pressman at the Boston Globe, but we are owned by the New York Times and we print the New England distribution of it at work. I occasionally work this press.
But I digress. . . Not that I was reading the paper or anything, I was too busy finetuning things so the transplanted New Yorkers up here don't throw a hissy fit. But, I just happened to stumble upon a brief article that mentions the possibility of Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon flip-flopping in the batting order. Did Bill James or Rob Neyer get Cashman or Girardi's ear? Not sure, but to this ardent Red Sox fan, this makes complete sense. And, I will tell you why.
Jeter's OBP has historically been better than Damon's. He still runs pretty well. He's good for 180 hits a year and maybe 70 walks. His power has waned and that ballpark does him no favors. So, Jeter leads off with a single or walk. He's on first and getting a decent lead. He's no burner, but still steals quite a bit and takes a pretty good lead. The first baseman has to keep him honest, right? So who comes up? Our beloved Damon. Johnny's funky swing produces a lot of pulled grounders. Some of them could find this wide hole with the first baseman holding Jeter on. Instant first and third with the big boys coming up. Johnny likes to drop an occasional bunt as I recall. If Johnny can bunt towards first, it's him against the pitcher. Even at age 35, I like Damon's chances here.
You want to hit and run with J and J (Jeter and Johnny)? Damon doesn't swing and miss much at all. With the shortstop likely covering second, Damon has the bat control to poke one to the left side. Though Jeter's home run power has sagged, he still hits plenty of doubles. With him on second, Damon is the perfect guy to pull the ball towards second. If he doesn't get it though, Jeter's on 3rd with one out. If he gets it through, it's 1-0 Yanks, Damon's on first and Texiera is up. Hopefully this will be the last Yanks musing for awhile, but I'm amazed that something this practical has finally been discussed.
But I digress. . . Not that I was reading the paper or anything, I was too busy finetuning things so the transplanted New Yorkers up here don't throw a hissy fit. But, I just happened to stumble upon a brief article that mentions the possibility of Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon flip-flopping in the batting order. Did Bill James or Rob Neyer get Cashman or Girardi's ear? Not sure, but to this ardent Red Sox fan, this makes complete sense. And, I will tell you why.
Jeter's OBP has historically been better than Damon's. He still runs pretty well. He's good for 180 hits a year and maybe 70 walks. His power has waned and that ballpark does him no favors. So, Jeter leads off with a single or walk. He's on first and getting a decent lead. He's no burner, but still steals quite a bit and takes a pretty good lead. The first baseman has to keep him honest, right? So who comes up? Our beloved Damon. Johnny's funky swing produces a lot of pulled grounders. Some of them could find this wide hole with the first baseman holding Jeter on. Instant first and third with the big boys coming up. Johnny likes to drop an occasional bunt as I recall. If Johnny can bunt towards first, it's him against the pitcher. Even at age 35, I like Damon's chances here.
You want to hit and run with J and J (Jeter and Johnny)? Damon doesn't swing and miss much at all. With the shortstop likely covering second, Damon has the bat control to poke one to the left side. Though Jeter's home run power has sagged, he still hits plenty of doubles. With him on second, Damon is the perfect guy to pull the ball towards second. If he doesn't get it though, Jeter's on 3rd with one out. If he gets it through, it's 1-0 Yanks, Damon's on first and Texiera is up. Hopefully this will be the last Yanks musing for awhile, but I'm amazed that something this practical has finally been discussed.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Brad Wilkerson Can't Hit:
OK
So, I'm up at 1:00 in the morning. And, what comes to mind? The 25th spot on the Red Sox roster, of course. No one applauded the Sox bringing back Mark Kotsay more than I did. He fills several roles and fills them all well. Sean Casey is on the MLB Network now and he's informative, witty and looks like he might have a decent second career as a TV guy. However, he was about the worst bench player the Sox have ever had. He had no power, could not run and could not field. Not too many years earlier, he could do 2 of the 3 here. I saw him perform quite well in the 2006 World Series for Detroit. Something happened to Mr. Casey before he came here, though. Basically, to be kind, it looks like he swallowed a beach ball and he lost whatever mobility he had in the field.
This is likely why the Sox went after Mark Kotsay last year. Kotsay is a pretty good player. He's an above average outfielder who can play all 3 outfield positions. He has a bit of power, runs pretty well and has been a starting player for the better part of a decade. This was a great pickup for the Sox down the stretch last year. They had determined that Casey could no longer bend over in the field and Kotsay ended up playing a significant role in the playoffs last year when Mike Lowell's hip no longer allowed him to play. Kotsay played first base, a position he had rarely if ever played. He looked like a seasoned vet in the field and though he hit in tough luck, he was an important part of an almost World Series team.
During the off-season, I figured Kotsay would be shooting to get a starting job somewhere. He's likely still productive enough to start on a small market team. I was thrilled that the Red Sox were able to bring him back in January. He gives them huge protection at 5 positions and with the injury concerns of David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Rocco Baldelli, he was that perfect fit. Of course, bad health intervened and he's likely to miss at least the first month of the season with a back injury.
So, I've digressed badly here. Brad Wilkerson is in the title and I should be getting around to talking about him. There is obviously a spot on this roster for an extra outfield/first base type at least until Kotsay comes back. Not 24-36 hours after the Kotsay injury was announced, Wilkerson was brought on board on a minor league deal. Wilkerson has bounced around the league for several years, bringing a versatile glove, a lefty power bat and a lot of strikeouts with him. When they signed Casey last year, it was rumored that Wilkerson was really the guy they wanted, but got more money elsewhere. Anyway, so this is a nice opportunity for Wilkerson and surely he has the upperhand because he can play all 3 outfield positions as well as first base.
I don't really want to get into Wilkerson's supposed ability to play CF. I haven't seen any evidence of this skill, he's below average in the corners and a plodder to boot. It's in someone's scouting report that he can play CF, so we'll run with that. Anyway, I hope the Sox are considering Chris Carter or Jeff Bailey for this spot instead. Wilkerson has struck out in exactly half of his at bats this spring and shows no signs that he can hit any type of major league fastball. Carter and Bailey, though extremely limited with their gloves, have major league bats and both seem to have the desire to hustle through their limitations. My goal is to see Wilkerson pack his bags soon and give one of these career minor leaguers a shot with the big club. We'll see how it plays out.
So, I'm up at 1:00 in the morning. And, what comes to mind? The 25th spot on the Red Sox roster, of course. No one applauded the Sox bringing back Mark Kotsay more than I did. He fills several roles and fills them all well. Sean Casey is on the MLB Network now and he's informative, witty and looks like he might have a decent second career as a TV guy. However, he was about the worst bench player the Sox have ever had. He had no power, could not run and could not field. Not too many years earlier, he could do 2 of the 3 here. I saw him perform quite well in the 2006 World Series for Detroit. Something happened to Mr. Casey before he came here, though. Basically, to be kind, it looks like he swallowed a beach ball and he lost whatever mobility he had in the field.
This is likely why the Sox went after Mark Kotsay last year. Kotsay is a pretty good player. He's an above average outfielder who can play all 3 outfield positions. He has a bit of power, runs pretty well and has been a starting player for the better part of a decade. This was a great pickup for the Sox down the stretch last year. They had determined that Casey could no longer bend over in the field and Kotsay ended up playing a significant role in the playoffs last year when Mike Lowell's hip no longer allowed him to play. Kotsay played first base, a position he had rarely if ever played. He looked like a seasoned vet in the field and though he hit in tough luck, he was an important part of an almost World Series team.
During the off-season, I figured Kotsay would be shooting to get a starting job somewhere. He's likely still productive enough to start on a small market team. I was thrilled that the Red Sox were able to bring him back in January. He gives them huge protection at 5 positions and with the injury concerns of David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Rocco Baldelli, he was that perfect fit. Of course, bad health intervened and he's likely to miss at least the first month of the season with a back injury.
So, I've digressed badly here. Brad Wilkerson is in the title and I should be getting around to talking about him. There is obviously a spot on this roster for an extra outfield/first base type at least until Kotsay comes back. Not 24-36 hours after the Kotsay injury was announced, Wilkerson was brought on board on a minor league deal. Wilkerson has bounced around the league for several years, bringing a versatile glove, a lefty power bat and a lot of strikeouts with him. When they signed Casey last year, it was rumored that Wilkerson was really the guy they wanted, but got more money elsewhere. Anyway, so this is a nice opportunity for Wilkerson and surely he has the upperhand because he can play all 3 outfield positions as well as first base.
I don't really want to get into Wilkerson's supposed ability to play CF. I haven't seen any evidence of this skill, he's below average in the corners and a plodder to boot. It's in someone's scouting report that he can play CF, so we'll run with that. Anyway, I hope the Sox are considering Chris Carter or Jeff Bailey for this spot instead. Wilkerson has struck out in exactly half of his at bats this spring and shows no signs that he can hit any type of major league fastball. Carter and Bailey, though extremely limited with their gloves, have major league bats and both seem to have the desire to hustle through their limitations. My goal is to see Wilkerson pack his bags soon and give one of these career minor leaguers a shot with the big club. We'll see how it plays out.
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