I think we all know the script. The Red Sox have owned the Angels historically in post-season action. The way both teams are constructed this year begs a much closer look, though. I still think the Red Sox will come out on top. But, this is not '04, '07 or even '08. Both teams have gotten to this point in vastly different ways.
I think we need to spend a lot of well chosen words in talking about the Angels. They are a completely different team than what we are used to. Once an aggressive team that was built on speed and a dominant back end bullpen, the Angels as a whole have come full circle this year. Seemingly, the late offseason addition of Bobby Abreu and his patient approach to hitting has rubbed off on many teammates. Chone Figgins has turned into a premier leadoff guy with close to a .400 OBP with over 40 steals. Abreu also checked in with a .390 OBP setting up the big guys of Tori Hunter, Vlad Guerrero, Kendry Morales (34 homers, 108 RBI's) and Juan Rivera (88 ribbies). This is a formidable offense with tough outs top to bottom including Red Sox killer Mike Napoli (20 bombs), the 2nd base combo of Kendrick/Izturis and SS Erick Aybar (hitting .312). There are no spots to relax and with this improved patience, decent power and several guys who can run, the Red Sox pitching staff will have their work cut out for them.
The Angels starting rotation consists of John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders. All have been tough on the Red Sox at times, especially Kazmir when he was at Tampa Bay. Interestingly, the Sox have hit Lackey well historically (including the post-season), but were almost no hit by him earlier this year. Same with Saunders who occasionally looks like a world beater and has pitched very well down the stretch. Kazmir can be trick or treat, but has pitched very well overall since being acquired by Los Angeles in late August. Weaver is steady and has been the most consistent starter all year. The bullpen, always a huge strength of the Angels with the likes of K-Rod, Scot Shields, and Justin Speier has been the team's Achilles heel. Closer Brian Fuentes has been shaky and other than veteran soft tosser Darren Oliver, the majority of the bullpen including set-up righties Kevin Jepsen and Jason Bulger are unproven in the post-season.
Getting to the Red Sox, they come into the post-season reasonably healthy and with some new weapons. Assuming the last week bumps and bruises of Drew, Lowell and Gonzalez are no factor, they are poised to make a strong run towards their 3rd title in 6 years. The absolute key to any Sox run starts and finishes with Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. If they are right, no team boasts a one/two punch of power pitching from both sides of the bump. Both have great post-season track records and we all have seen that power guys dominate in October. This is a huge advantage to the Sox in a 5 game series. The Angels simply do not have an ace with these type credentials. The Sox also boast plenty of power arms in the bullpen supporting Jonathan Papelbon. Daniel Bard and Billy Wagner will be asked to get many of the big outs in the 7th and 8th innings. Okajima should be rested and ready to help along with Ramon Ramirez. Again, this is a huge advantage over the Halos.
Again, assuming good health, Alex Gonzalez has transformed the Red Sox into an above average defensive team. One could argue that other than left field and catcher, they are very solid making the plays with better than league average range. We've all seen several track meets this year with all the base stealing with Varitek and even Martinez behind the plate. The Angels have the personnel to make this happen. However, 2 of the biggest culprits on the hill (Wakefield and Brad Penny) won't be pitching which should help some. The other factor is that it appears that Jason Varitek will be a bit part this series. Martinez is certainly not a great catcher, but at this stage in his career a better alternative than the captain. Much of this will be moot if Lester and Beckett do their thing and pitch the way they are capable. Clay Buchholz, despite 2 shaky starts, has great stuff and Dice-K should be able to give them 5-6 serviceable innings as their 4th starter.
Rounding out the Red Sox roster should be interesting. They may only carry 10 pitchers which would likely leave Paul Byrd and Manny Delcarmen out. They may opt for a 3rd catcher (Kottaras), an extra infielder (if they can find a healthy one) or speedy outfielder (Joey Gathright) taking the Dave Roberts role. The last minute health of Jed Lowrie, Nick Green and Rocco Baldelli will likely make any predictions here difficult. Lowrie hit a homer the other day batting lefty, but was grimacing noticably after the swing. Green has a herniated disk in his back, we all know how those can be and Baldelli seemingly just can't stay healthy. This could open roster spots for the likes of Gathright, Chris Woodward, Brian Anderson and/or Josh Reddick.
I'm going with Boston winning the series in 4 games. Lester and Beckett do their thing in California. The Angels will knock Buchholz around in game 3 to force a game 4. Game 4, Dice K throws his usual root canal game of 120 pitches in 5 innings, they use 6 relievers and win 6-5 with Pap getting the save. This is how I see it.
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