I have a few theories that I'll share. Let's talk about the one most people are pointing at, namely the big increase in innings last year and the deep postseason run where every pitch is a nail biter. There is probably something to this. Look at Beckett last year after his phenomenal 2007 post season performance. He came in to camp out of shape and unprepared and immediately hurt his back. He never was the same last year.
Francona and Farrell are always saying how big of a kid Lester is and how he can handle the workload. His innings definitely went up by a longshot last year, many young pitchers have had some problems the next year after big inning increases. See Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, Fausto Carmona, etc. Certainly this could be part of it especially when you factor in those pressure packed postseason innings.
Lester's velocity has stayed consistent, he's usually in the low to mid 90's like he was last year. So seemingly his arm is sound. But, is he humping it up for the radar gun sacrificing movement and location? It appears that way at least so far.
Think of all the good lefties in baseball the last several years. Glavine, Buehrle, Cliff Lee, Hamels, Pettitte, Sabathia. With the exception of Sabathia, Lester throws harder than all of them. However, he lacks something that most lefties have, a quality changeup. Don't get me wrong, I love his cutter that bores down and in on the righties. And, certainly I love his 4 seam 95 MPH heat. But, seemingly it is all he's throwing these days. He's gotten away from the good breaking ball he throws, especially to righties and maybe throws his change 5 times a game. This is not enough. Righties are laying off that cutter and teeing off on the straight heat. When you've got the type of fastball that he has, there has to be another pitch that looks like the heater, but isn't. Most lefties use that screwball like change to run away from righties and get those ground balls. I'd like to see Lester work on this.
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